For all the analysts and pundits in the financial media, there is still no better judge of a company's health and future prospects than the owners and executives of those companies themselves, along with major institutional shareholders.

That's why insider buying and selling is a critical piece of data that is monitored by people who invest for a living.

As part of our continuing efforts here at The Tycoon Report to level the playing field between individual investors and the fat cats on Wall Street, we're keeping you informed -- on a daily basis and at no cost whatsoever -- of the most significant insider buying and selling.

Below is a weekly re-cap of the past week's activity of important insider buys and sells. We aim to publish this re-cap every Monday, and it can be accessed in your e-mail issues or on the Tycoon Report Web site.

Very important note:  While these re-caps are available on the Tycoon Report Web site, if you want the most timely information we provide on insider buying and selling, be sure to read the e-mail issues that we send each weekday morning.
   

SELLS


Airgas (ARG)

Division President Andrew R. Cichocki SOLD $1.1 million in options. View details.


Ametek (AME)

CFO John J. Molinelli SOLD $3.1 million in options. View details.


Arena Resources (ARD)

Chairman Lloyd Timothy Rochford SOLD $4.7 million in options. View details.


AsiaInfo Holdings (ASIA)

CEO & President Steve Zhang SOLD $1.9 million in shares. View details.


CKE Restaurants (CKR)

CEO Andrew F. Puzder SOLD $1.1 million in shares. View details.


Dell (DELL)

Stephen Francis Schuckenbrock SOLD $1.4 million in shares. View details.


FedEx (FDX)

Executive Vice President T. Michael Glenn SOLD $2.7 million in options. View details.


Integra Lifesciences (IART)

COO Gerard S. Carlozzi SOLD $1 million in shares.  View details.


Marvell (MRVL)

Chief Technology Officer Pantas Sutardia SOLD $3.3 million in shares. View details.


Oracle (ORCL)

President Safra Catz SOLD $5.3 million in options. View details.


Staples (SPLS)

President & COO Michael Miles SOLD $3.5 million in shares. View details.


Synopsis (SNPS)

President & COO Chi-Foon Chan SOLD $2.7 million in options. View details.


United Technologies (UTX)

President, Sikorsky Aircraft Jeffrey P. Pino SOLD $1.9 million in options. View details.





Tycoon Staff
Chief Investment Officer
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TUESDAY, SEPT. 29

9 a.m. Conference Board Consumer Confidence

    * Importance (A-F): This release merits a B-.
    * Source: The Conference Board.
    * Release Time: 10 a.m. Eastern on the last Tuesday of the month (data for current month).
    * Raw Data Available At: http://www.tcb-indicators.org

The index consists of two subindexes -- consumers' appraisal of current conditions and their expectations for the future. Expectations make up 60% of the total index, with current conditions accounting for the other 40%. The expectations index is typically seen as having better leading indicator qualities than the current conditions index.

Highlights

    * The Conference Board's consumer confidence indicator soared above the consensus forecast of 47.9 by posting a strong rebound to 54.1 from 47.4 in August. The jump follows two consecutive dismal results.

    * The increase in consumer confidence was due to the Expectation Index increasing from 63.4 in July to 73.5. The index is at its highest level since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.

    * The Present Situation index rose a more modest 1.6 units to 24.9.

    * The number of respondents who think business conditions are currently "bad" declined approximately 1 percentage point to 45.6%.

    * Consumers are also a little more upbeat on the job market with 45.1% of respondents believing jobs are hard to get, a decline of 3.4% from June, and 4.2% of respondents saying jobs are plentiful, an increase of 0.5%.

Key Factors

    * It's no surprise that the consumer confidence numbers were pushed higher by the Expectations Index. The index is highly correlated with the number of positive/negative news reports. All of the talk in the media about economic growth returning by the beginning of Q3, including a Newsweek Magazine cover announcing the end of recession is here,  helped alleviate a lot of the consumer's concern about the future.

    * The more telling sign of the consumer holdback is from the Present Situation Index. Consumers are currently not seeing seeing strong growth and they may continue holding off on major purchases until they witness evidence of the economy rebounding.

Big Picture

    * Consumer sentiment indices get way too much attention.  The simple fact is that sentiment does not correlate strongly with consumer spending and thus has little predictive value.  Consumer spending correlates more closely with income.  Sentiment tends to reflect well known factors such as unemployment rates and gas prices more than it predicts future spending patterns.


WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 30

9:45 a.m. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index

    * Importance (A-F): The Chicago PMI merits a B.
    * Source: Kingsbury Int'l Ltd. and Institute for Supply Management–Chicago Inc.
    * Release Time: Typically the last business day of the month at 9:45 a.m. Eastern

There are many regional manufacturing surveys, and they tend to be ranked in order of timeliness and the importance of the region. The New York and Philadelphia Fed's surveys are the first each month, followed by the Chicago purchasing managers' report on the last day of each month. The purchasing managers' reports are measured like the national Institute for Supply Management data -- 50% marks the breakeven line between an expanding and contracting manufacturing sector. For the New York, Philadelphia and Atlanta Fed indexes, 0 is the breakeven mark. These surveys can be of some help in forecasting the national ISM.

Highlights

    * According to the Institute of Supply Management-Chicago and Kingsbury International Ltd., the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index increased to 50.0 in August (consensus 48.0) from 43.4 in July.

    * Both production and new orders jumped above the 50.0 threshold, the point where the sector signals positive growth, to 52.9 and 52.5, respectively.

    * Prices paid jumped to 50.0 as well and eased some deflation worries.

    * Both employment and inventories remain weak, but the contraction eased slightly as the indices rose to 38.7 and 27.5 respectively.

    * Other components of the PMI show improvement as order backlogs rose to 52.5 from 48.0 and supplier deliveries increased from 49.6 to 54.6.

Key Factors

    * The August report ends 10 consecutive months of contraction and sets the stage for a recovery in the manufacturing sector in the near future.

    * The report follows the positive new orders data reported by the Census Bureau last week. Unfortunately, the PMI does not break down and explain which sectors within the manufacturing sector are growing. Growth in durable orders were due to unsustainable output in the aircraft sector. Similar readings could temporarily push up the PMI and provide a false growth signal.

Big Picture

    * The Chicago PMI has little overall economic value, and is only watched by the financial markets because it is usually released one day in advance of the similar national ISM manufacturing survey.  A significant move in this regional survey will therefore sometimes be seen as having predictive value for the ISM index.


THURSDAY, OCT. 1

10 a.m. Institute for Supply Management

    * Importance (A-F): This release merits an A-.
    * Source: Institute for Supply Management
    * Release Time: 10 a.m. Eastern on the first business day of the month for the prior month.
    * Raw Data Available At: http://www.ism.ws

The ISM report is a national survey of purchasing managers that covers such indicators as new orders, production, employment, inventories, delivery times, prices, export orders and import orders. Diffusion indexes are produced for each of these categories, with a reading over 50% indicating expansion relative to the prior month, and a sub-50% reading indicating contraction.

The total index is calculated based on a weighted average of the following five sub-indexes, with weights in parentheses: new orders (30%), production (25%), employment (20%), deliveries (15%) and inventories (10%).

The ISM is one of the first comprehensive economic releases of the month, typically preceding the employment report. Though it covers only the manufacturing sector, it can often provide accurate hints regarding the tone of subsequent releases. During periods of inflation concerns, the prices paid and vendor deliveries indexes often determine the bond market's reaction to the report.

Highlights

    * The ISM manufacturing index broke through the 50.0 threshold and signaled the end to the contraction in manufacturing phase of the recession.

    * The index rose 4 points to 52.9, well-above the consensus estimate of 50.5 in August and marked the eighth consecutive month the index increased from the prior month.

    * There are many encouraging signs reported in the data. New orders jumped 9.6% to 64.9 as the expansion clearly takes hold. Deliveries strengthened 5.1% to 57.1.

    * Inventory restocking continues to be a problem. Inventories contracted for the 40th consecutive month and customer inventories have dropped for the fifth consecutive month.

    * Export growth rose 5.0% to 55.5 while imports began a slight contraction phase as growth declined 0.5% to 49.5.

    * Prices rose 10.0% to 65.0. While inflation is not expected anytime soon, such a large price increase will increase the worries of inflation hawks.

Key Factors

    * Overall the index shows a strong rebound in the manufacturing sector.

    * Only 6 of the 18 manufacturing industries reported contraction in August, and 2 of the 6 sectors, primary metals and plastics and rubber products, should post positive growth as the automobile sector revs up.

Big Picture

    * This is a highly overrated index.  It is merely a survey of purchasing managers.  It is a diffusion index, which means that it reflects the number of people saying conditions are better compared to the number saying conditions are worse.  It does not weight for size of the firm, or for the degree of better/worse.  It can therefore underestimate conditions if there is a great deal of strength in a few firms.  The data have thus not been either a good forecasting tool or a good read on current conditions during this business cycle.  It must be recognized that the index is not hard data of any kind, but simply a survey that provides broad indications of trends.


FRIDAY, OCT. 2

8:30 a.m. The Employment Report

    * Importance (A-F): This release merits an A.
    * Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
    * Release Time: First Friday of the month at 8:30 a.m. Eastern for the prior month
    * Raw Data Available At: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm

The employment report is actually two separate reports which are the results of two separate surveys. The household survey is a survey of roughly 60,000 households. This survey produces the unemployment rate. The establishment survey is a survey of 375,000 businesses. This survey produces the nonfarm payrolls, average workweek, and average hourly earnings figures, to name a few. Both surveys cover the payroll period that includes the 12th of each month.

The reports both measure employment levels, just from different angles. Due to the vastly different size of the survey samples (the establishment survey not only surveys more businesses, but each business employs many individuals), the measures of employment may differ markedly from month to month. The household survey is used only for the unemployment measure - the market focusses primarily on the more comprehensive establishment survey. Together, these two surveys make up the employment report, the most timely and broad indicator of economic activity released each month.

Highlights

    * The employment report showed mixed data in August compared to consensus expectations. One one hand, payrolls declined less than expected at -216K compared to the consensus forecast of -230K. On the other hand, the unemployment report jumped to 9.7% after the consensus forecast a more moderate 9.5%.

    * Average hourly earnings rose a better-than-expected 0.3% (consensus 0.2%).

    * The average workweek stayed the same at 33.1 hours. The manufacturing workweek also held steady at 39.8 hours. We expect the manufacturing workweek to increase slightly over the next few months as manufacturing factories come back on-line to restock depleted inventories.

    * The construction sector shed 65K jobs in August, much slower than the -117K per month average over the last 6 months. The construction sector has declined by 1.4 million jobs since the beginning of the recession. In other sectors, manufacturing employment dropped 63K; financial activities lost 28K and wholesale trade declined 17K. The retail trade sector, professional and business services sector, transportation and warehousing sectors, and leisure and hospitality sectors all stayed relatively the same from last month. The health care sector continues to gain jobs, up 28K.

    * The "real" unemployment rate, all unemployed, underemployed, and discouraged workers, ticked up 0.5 percentage points to 16.8%.

Key Factors

    * This report did nothing to show an ease in labor market conditions as we are now on the verge of topping the latest long-term unemployment forecast. The consensus forecast a peak rate of 9.9% by the middle of 2010, and, if trends continue, 9.9% will be reached before the end of the year.

    * It's strange to see payrolls moderate while the unemployment rate increases more than expected. One explanation would be for more people entering the labor force. However, the labor force only rose by 73K people. During normal market conditions, the labor force is expected to increase between 110K-120K. Further, the number of discouraged workers jumped 143K. If the increase in the labor force was the reason for the jump in the unemployment we would see a larger than 120K increase in the labor force and possibly a decline in the number of discouraged workers.

    * The more likely explanation is that the household survey finally caught up to the large declines shown by the establishment survey. While the two surveys are distinctly different in what they are attempting to analyze, the data from both surveys should correlate fairly well. For the last few months, the unemployment rate decline has slowed even though the payrolls data suggested large declines in available jobs. This month, the household survey showed an increase in the number of unemployed persons by 466K which is in-line with the initial claims reports over the last four weeks.

Big Picture

    * Weekly claims for unemployment have to drop below 400,000 before payrolls will stabilize.

    * Limited wage growth and declining payroll levels are a recipe for very poor consumer confidence and sluggish consumer spending.

Source: Briefing.com