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Time to Go From Bearish to the Bullish Bullpen?

Tuesday, July 22, 2008 | Chris Rowe

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~ July 22, 2008 IMPORTANT UPDATE!!!

Below is an article I wrote Monday and published Today (Tuesday, July 22, 2008).   In it, I told you to sit tight, and that I would let you know when it's time to get bullish.  Well with today's market action, I am now seeing all that I need to see from my indicators to tell you that NOW IS THE TIME TO GET BULLISH.  This couldn't wait until next Tuesday's article. GO!  (Remember, markets typically don't go straight up.)  You are welcome to join me at The Trend Rider!


This one will be pretty short folks.  I'm buried up to by eyeballs in some serious stock market research.  Why?  Because I think we are nearing the time to switch gears and get bullish again for the intermediate term.  I'm thinking as soon as I get the signals, we are going to have a LOT of fun.  There's an awful lot of money on the sidelines right now waiting for the right time to buy.  Not only that, but there is a TON of short-stock that investors are strongly considering covering.  That means they have to buy a tremendous amount of stock to exit their bearish positions.  That would add tremendous upwards pressure to the market in addition to new buyers.

On May 27th, I recommended that you buy the SPDR S&P December 148 puts as a hedge against a decline in the S&P500 (Symbol JBG XR).  The put option at the time was $14.80.  The last closing price was at $22.20 bid $22.50 offer.

The market should open lower given the slew of negative earnings announcements after hours today (I'm writing this Monday, the day before you read it, so things may change by the next open of U.S. markets).  But if you recall, I said to sell the put option when the VIX jumps over $30 and then reverses lower in a meaningful way. That happened on July 16th and on that day, the put option traded between $24.60 and $26.95.  The average is $25.77 which is a 74% gain in 2 months.  If you haven't yet exited the position, I'll bet that the put options is up from the last closing price and I think you should exit it (sell the put to close).

Recall that I said you would want to have some cash on the side for when the market sells off.  Well the market is showing several signs of a bottom, and next Tuesday I will tell you if it's time to get bullish yet.  I can't tell you exactly what to get bullish on though.  You'd have to sign up to The Trend Rider for that, and I have some pretty big plays that I'm close to recommending. 

We just might get one more fast sell-off here, but I wouldn't be very bearish given how oversold we are.  The NYSE High Low index just hit a 21 year low.  When this reverses back up it's a very bullish sign.  The Investors Intelligence Advisors Sentiment Indicator is at levels not seen since 1994 overly bearish (which is a bullish sign).  And my internal indicators are showing that we are extremely oversold.  Believe it or not, recently, about 80% of stocks listed on the NYSE were below their 30-week moving averages!

So you could get hurt being bearish here.  Just get ready to take a nice ride to the upside when my indicators turn up.  It's like a spring that's very coiled, and the more coiled it becomes, the bigger the jump higher typically is.  I'll keep you posted next Tuesday, but until then, don't be trigger happy.  Don't worry about trying to buy the exact bottom.  It's too dangerous.  Wait for my confirmation and then we'll go to town together!

Anyone disagree?  Leave a comment by clicking below. 

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“Profit from the Trend”

Chris Rowe
Chief Investment Officer
The Trend Rider




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23 Comments

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  1. RAD (3 weeks ago) Is this Spam?

    Let's get something straight: The tax rates in what some think of as the good ol' days were as high as 80%. What we've got now is the other extreme where, comparatively, the taxes paid by the upper-upper income bracket are outrageously low -- and I'm not talking about the bracket; I'm talking about the amounts (because of loopholes and the like).



    Don't take my word for it! So says the IRS:



    "The wealthiest 1 percent of Americans garnered 22 percent of the national income in 2006, their highest share since 1929, the Internal Revenue Service reported. At the same time, those at the very top of the income pyramid saw their average income tax rate fall to 22.8 percent that year -- the lowest tax rate paid by the top 1 percent since 1988." - From THE WEEK, August 1, 2008



    Think about that for a second: ONE PERCENT of Americans took home TWENTY-TWO PERCENT of all income generated in the entire country. Yet their average tax bracket was lower than that of most middle-income earners.



    Whew! Food for thought.
  2. Chris (4 weeks ago) Is this Spam?

    CHRIS ROWE HERE,

    Hey Gary, I'm sorry you get hit but as soon as I published last week's article, the VIX did make the spike higher and reverse lower giving a VIX buy signal. Today my article was published in the morning, and tonight I see what I need to see to be bullish.

    Folks, it's time to be bullish again. We have a tradable uptrend. Read the top of the article HERE on THIS WEBSITE. I updated it. I see what I needed to see. Don't wait for next Tuesday.

    Chris Rowe
  3. Michael O (4 weeks ago) Is this Spam?

    To all,



    Did you ever toggle thru maybe a hundred or two hundred charts rapidly (with the help of a user friendly software program) and start to notice similarity in patterns, especially in charts of the same sector? That's a clue, a giant clue.



    While good stock picking is wonderful, in my opinion the search really begins with having a very good sense of where the broad market is currently and what individual business sectors are doing within the overall market.



    I'm reading from several very reliable sources that this market could be setting up for a tradable uptrend. I believe that it's true because I see the very same thing on my market timing indicators which over time I have come to respect.



    Ask yourself, if I was in Chris's office and talking with him one on one, could I make a credible case to him of where I believe the broad market to be and which sectors are likely to respond the strongest if this market really takes off for a tradable run? If you honestly have to answer that question by saying, "No, I don't posses the market analysis skills to be capable of making such a presentation " then you are in the right place. You need more Tycoon education before sacraficing your hard earned dollars to the professional traders smiling and waiting patiently for your next trade!



    And as for all those similar charts that I mentioned earlier, most of them will wake up and respond to the broad market's positive or negative momentum and especially their sector movement. Look at the market and it's sectors as a river of money. All those charts are similar because they are flowing in the same money river. Get to know the river first and your boat will be more likely to end up where you expected. Ignore the river and pick any old leaky boat at your peril.



    Thanks
  4. Chris (4 weeks ago) Is this Spam?

    CHRIS ROWE HERE

    David,

    The recommendation wasn't in TTR. We had many other ways to hedge in TTR and made lots of big percentage gains on bearish positions. The S&P put was one of the only recommnedations I ever gave for free in The Tycoon Report and I did it only because I felt it was my responsibility to tell everyone how to protect against the big correction we experienced.

    It goes against general policy but I made the exception this once. Check the May 27 Tycoon Report on this website and you'll see it.

    Chris
  5. Chris (4 weeks ago) Is this Spam?

    CHRIS ROWE HERE
  6. Gary (4 weeks ago) Is this Spam?

    I am new to this site and must admit I am not having much success. I'll explain.



    First, I studied Teeka's section on stochastics. I found a stock - COF in a downtrend with terrible fundamentals in a terrible sector. The stochastics were set up perfectly so I shorted it. Now it appears I am going to go to the woodshed??? I don't know where I made my mistake???



    Second, I read Chris's weekly "How to Slay a Bear". The plan was to go small short, wait for a big spike in the vix, then go long intermediate.

    Below is quote from the article:



    Okay, you probably want to know the signs of a bottom, right? Two weeks ago I wrote an article titled "How To Pick the Next Bottom in this Bloody Market". You should click there to read it. You can use the VIX to find market bottoms. Please read the article carefully - twice. Note that the VIX peaked out in the high 30's in 3 out of the last 4 major bottoms including the last 2 bottoms. (You'll see the chart in the article). On Monday, it hit 29.30 and it's moving higher. You'll see a huge spike in it when the market is making the intermediate bottom.



    So, I got out of my long positons with losses. I got into short positions, but never saw the spike in the vix talked about above. Now it appears I am not going to see this spike. So, I will sell my shorts for a loss.



    Net is, I don't have the confidence to stay in the game. I just don't want to continue taking losses.
  7. Chris (4 weeks ago) Is this Spam?

    CHRIS ROWE HERE

    Matthew,

    The idea is when "there is not one positive note in the market place" most of the selling in the intermediate term (weeks to months) has typically already happened. This isn't the "buy signal". It's the precursor to the "buy signal". We need to see confirmations before getting bullish. But it REALLY HELPS enormously to understand these sentiment based precursors. Reason being, when we get our various "buy signals" we are confident enough to act on the QUICKLY instead of second guessing them and only acting in the end of the bull run.

    As for the down 54% thing, although this obviously sounds biased, I suggest signing up with The Trend RIder where I have an excellent track record. You should also consider getting into Teeka's new CASH system which generates automatic trade alerts based on market data. It has been INCREDIBLY accurate!! You'll hear about it soon. I promise you if you learn from the CRISS program or ETF master trader program you will be a much better investor. We would have few buyers if we actually charged what the education is worth.

    Chris

    LARRY,

    I agree it will be very harmful to the economy if Obama is elected. I like the guy. I just don't agree with raising taxes which will hurt everyone - not just the rich. That's what they tell people just to rally them around him, but anyone who researches the real impact knows the truth. Anyone earning $ in a pension fund, 401K or any investment in the market looses. If businesses are hurting, it hurts their employees. Taxing oil companies will only hurt middle class and so will raising taxes.

    Chris
  8. Larry (4 weeks ago) Is this Spam?

    CORRECTION on my statement below. Change "stocks" to "mutual funds." Sorry.
  9. Larry (4 weeks ago) Is this Spam?

    Mr. Perlman, I doubt that Chris will advise you on anything concerning your questions because of legal consequences, nor will I. I will say however, that you can not deal with a better company then Vanguard. Just do your homework before choosing your stocks. I happen to have one of the stocks you mentioned, and it is beaten down at the present time, but that could be a good thing for you (getting it at a bargain price). Good Luck my friend!
  10. Gary (4 weeks ago) Is this Spam?

    Chris,

    I never got your market wrapup to play????



    Enjoying your course, am trying Teeka's shorting of COF using stochastics. It gave a great signal on monday.



    Gary Blazo

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