For all the analysts and pundits in the financial media, there is still no better judge of a company's health and future prospects than the owners and executives of those companies themselves, along with major institutional shareholders.

That's why insider buying and selling is a critical piece of data that is monitored by people who invest for a living.

As part of our continuing effort here at The Tycoon Report to level the playing field between individual investors and the fat cats on Wall Street, we're keeping you informed -- on a daily basis and at no cost whatsoever -- of the most significant insider buying and selling.

Below is a weekly re-cap of the past week's activity of important insider buys and sells. We publish this re-cap every Monday, and it can be accessed in your email issues or on the Tycoon Report website.

Very important note:  While these Monday re-caps are available on the Tycoon Report website, if you want the most timely information we provide on insider buying and selling you've got to be sure and read the email issues that we send each weekday morning.
 

 

 

SELLS

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH)

COO Steven Ortiz has SOLD nearly $1.4 million in TXRH stock.

View Details


Jarden Corp. (JAH)

Vice Chairman and CFO Ian Ashken has SOLD more than $1 million in JAH stock.

View Details


Concho Resources, Inc. (CXO)

Chairman and CEO Timothy Leach has SOLD almost $1.3 million in CXO stock.

View Details


Outdoor Channel Holdings Inc. (OUTD)

Chairman of the Board Perry Massie has SOLD more than $1.2 million in OUTD stock.

View Details


Fossil Inc. (FOSL)

Chairman Tom Kartsotis has SOLD more than $2.4 million in FOSL stock.

View Details


Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL)

CEO Robert Toll has SOLD nearly $8.7 million worth of TOL stock.

View Details


Davita Inc. (DVA)

Chairman and CEO Kent Thiry has SOLD more than $4.6 million in DVA stock.

View Details


Thinkorswim Group Inc. (SWIM)

Chairman and CEO Lee Barba has SOLD more than $1.4 million in SWIM stock.

View Details

Tycoon Staff
Chief Investment Officer
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Economic Calendar for the Week of March 23 - March 27

Wednesday, March 25

08:30 - Durable Goods Orders

Release Details

    * Importance (A-F): This release merits a B.
    * Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.
    * Release Time: 8:30 ET around the 26th of the month (data for month prior).
    * Raw Data Available At: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm.

The durable orders release measures the dollar volume of orders, shipments, and unfilled orders of durable goods (defined as goods whose intended lifespan is three years or more). Orders are considered a leading indicator of manufacturing activity, and the market often moves on this report despite the volatility and large revisions that make it a less than perfect indicator. These problems can be minimized by looking at the breakdown of orders. The total number is often skewed by huge increases in aircraft and defense orders. An increase based solely on strength in one sector tends to be discounted, while the market is more impressed with broadbased increases in orders.

Also notable in this report is the narrow category of nondefense capital goods. These goods mirror the GDP category producers' durable equipment (PDE) -- the largest component of business investment. Shipments of nondefense capital goods are a good proxy for PDE in the current quarter, while nondefense capital goods orders provide an indication of PDE growth in the quarters ahead.

Highlights

    * Businesses are pulling back sharply, as evidenced by the sharp 5.2% drop in January durable goods new orders... There was widespread weakness across categories.
    * Transportation orders were down 13.5%. Excluding transportation, orders were down 2.5%.
    * Orders for primary metals were off 4.6%, machinery 2.0%, computers 5.0%, electrical equipment 6.1%, and even defense orders were off 28.3%.

Key Factors

    * Businesses are holding off on orders in part because of the extreme rhetoric about the outlook (which in turn simply makes conditions worse) and in part to see what develops in terms of fiscal policy.
    * Shipments in January fell 3.7%, getting the business investment component of GDP off to a very poor start. These numbers are decidedly bearish from an economic standpoint.

Big Picture

    * Durable goods orders are trending sharply lower.  Durable goods orders, and total factory orders (which include nondurables orders), had shown surprising strength given overall economic conditions.  Now, however, the widespread broadcast of an economic crisis has manufacturing firms pulling back.  In addition, the weak dollar has turned stronger.  The weak dollar has been a huge boost to US exports and durable goods orders.  This impact will fade over early 2009.  The manufacturing sector, which had been extremely resilient, will now probably head into a sectoral recession.

Thursday, March 26

08:30 - GDP: Gross Domestic Product

Release Details

    * Importance (A-F): This release merits a B.
    * Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.
    * Release Time: Third or fourth week of the month at 8:30 ET for the prior quarter, with subsequent revisions released in the second and third months of the quarter.
    * Raw Data Available At: http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn1.htm.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the the broadest measure of economic activity. Annualized quarterly percent changes in GDP reflect the growth rate of total economic output. The figures can be quite volatile from quarter to quarter. Inventory and net export swings in particular can produce significant volatility in GDP. The final sales figure, which excludes inventories, can sometimes be helpful in identifying underlying growth trends as inventories represent unsold goods, and a large inventory increase will boost GDP but might be indicative of weakness rather than strength. The broad components of GDP are: consumption, investment, net exports, government purchases, and inventories. Consumption is by far the largest component, totalling roughly 2/3rds of GDP.

In addition to the GDP figures, there are GDP deflators, which measure the change in prices in total GDP and for each component. Though the consumer price index is a more closely watched inflation indicator, the GDP deflator is another key inflation measure. Unlike CPI, it has the advantage of not being a fixed basket of goods and services, so that changes in consumption patterns or the introduction of new goods and services will be reflected in the deflator.

With both GDP and the deflator, the market tends to focus on the quarter/quarter change. Year/year changes are also cited frequently, though they do not provide the most timely indications of economic activity or inflation. The bond market often reacts to GDP, though the price moves are typically small, as much of the GDP data is easily predicted using monthly economic releases such as personal consumption, durable goods shipments, construction spending, international trade, and inventories.

Quarterly GDP reports are broken down into three announcements: advance, preliminary, and final. After the final revision, GDP is not revised again until the annual benchmark revisions each July. These revisions can be quite large and usually affect the past five years of data.

Highlights

    * Q4 real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 6.2% versus a previously estimated 3.8%. According to the government, the decrease primarily reflected negative contributions from exports, personal consumption expenditures, equipment and software, and residential fixed investment (i.e. most of the major components) that were partially offset by none other than a positive contribution from government spending.
    * Personal consumption expenditures declined at a 4.3% annual rate in Q4 versus an originally reported 3.5%. That accounted for 3 percentage points alone of the GDP decline. Net exports, meanwhile, knocked off 0.46 percentage points versus adding 0.1 percentage point for the advanced number.
    * Equipment and software took off 2.24 percentage points and residential fixed investment subtracted 0.78 percentage points. Government spending added 0.38 percentage points.
    * Reflecting the rapid deterioration in demand, final sales of domestic product, which is GDP less the change in private inventories, decreased 6.4% in the fourth quarter compared to a 1.3% decrease in the third quarter.
    * Raw Data Available At: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

Key Factors

    * While this data is essentially old news, seeing that we're 2/3 of the way through Q1, it still resonates as a startling reminder of how quickly things turned down in Q4. Unfortunately, the trends for Q1 don't paint a much better picture.

Big Picture

    * The trends in the economy were moderately poor through the summer.  Then, in September, the trends tanked along with the stock market.  Some tech firms noted a significant dropoff in demand right after the mini-panic of mid-September.  These worsening trends are apparent in the fourth quarter GDP numbers, and will remain so into 2009 as well.  Consumer spending is weakening and will only take a significant turn for the better once the declines in payroll moderate.  Business investment is also in retreat.  The stronger dollar is now weakening export demand as well.  A lot now depends on overall psychology and perceptions of how well the government responds to the financial market and other problems such as exist in the auto industry.  There is not yet much concern about the huge looming federal deficits, but that will probably become a topic as the next fiscal stimulus package is enacted in 2009.  The economic outlook is now as much a function of government action as it is of the traditional correlations and trends among macro-economic variables.

Friday, March 27

09:55 - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Release Details

    * Importance (A-F): This release merits a B-.
    * Source: The University of Michigan.
    * Release Time: Preliminary: 10:00 ET on the second Friday of the month (data for current month); Final: 10:00 ET on the fourth Friday of the month (data for current month).

The Michigan index is almost identical to the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index, though there are two monthly releases, a preliminary and final reading. Like the Conference Board index, it has two subindexes - expectations and current conditions. The expectations index is a component of the Conference Board's Leading Indicators index.

Big Picture

    * Sentiment readings are a reflection of a variety of events rather than an accurate tool for forecasting consumer spending.  Gas prices and political events can have an outsized impact on sentiment.  In general, these data are of very little economic value.