The Tycoon Report
Energy Stocks Are Being Given Away!
Saturday, February 11, 2006 | Chris Rowe

Before I start I just want to thank all of our readers for all of the positive feedback on the Calendar Spread strategy that we discussed.

Thank goodness that we put those Calendar spreads in, because the energy stocks have been getting whacked recently. At The Trend Rider, the fact that we reduced our cost basis on some of the biggest decliners, really meant the world to our model portfolio.

It's important to stay focused here and not to simply imagine the worst.

Since I'm getting married in a couple of weeks, I've been speaking with many of my family members who will or won't be able to make it to the wedding, and the funny thing is, many of them are asking me about the energy market dipping like this.

I'm hearing a lot of them talk about this energy correction, and they are comparing it to the tech stocks getting crushed in 2000.

They really believe that this is the same thing. I guess that this is a natural reaction for most people. It's understandable to hear that people are shaking in their boots when they see their stock account lose some value in such a short period of time.

But I'll tell you what I told the members of The Trend Rider: Don't sweat it! You didn't buy today's year-2000 technology.

There are two ways to react to this:

1) Looking at the screen, watching the stocks trade lower, and saying to yourself, what the heck am I doing here! I really DON'T have a grip on this market! Let me get out of everything, salvage what I can, and wait until I have a grip again!

This is a natural reaction, and it's the most common reaction amongst individual investors.

It's completely understandable. What tends to happen is you look at the price of the stock, and instead of using logic, or analysis, you just envision the stock at a much lower price, and you envision your account worth a lot less.

 ****** This is like the difference between looking at *********
****** a 10 day chart as opposed to the weekly chart *********

2) The question is, after you go through simply looking at the screen and IMAGINING the worst case scenario, you take a step back and you look at the weekly chart. You look at Valero, Sunoco and Suncor and you realize that this is just par for the course. You say, well this type of correction MUST happen with any long term uptrend.

You think of the macro-economic trends and you think about China, who has only just begun building up its oil reserves last September.

You turn down the volume on all of the hype that those news channels try to corrupt your mind with, and you think of the very simple fact that demand is still growing at a much faster pace than supply can possibly keep up with. You think of the fact that 2006 will be the best year that refineries have ever seen, with increasing profit margins quarter after quarter.

You remember that it takes 10 years to build a new refinery. You remember that there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the companies that you own.

You remember India, you remember that all of the facts you've read over the last year or two tell a different story than the hype that you may see here in the short term.

Then after you are done zoning out in the comforting world of rationalization, you look at your computer again ...

After you've put the Pepto-Bismol back in the cupboard, you realize that maybe the best thing to do is just turn off the computer and CNBC, and spend some time outdoors, with your family or friends, or maybe think hard about what you are going to do at work.

Don't let these (rather large) dips, shake you out of the market. Look at this as a huge buying opportunity rather than a short-term nightmare. It's really the difference between an individual investor and an professional investor.

Guys, take advantage of this gift! This is the place on the weekly chart that you will be looking at in 6 months saying to your buddy, "Wow, imagine if we bought energy stocks here!"

Until next time.



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“Profit from the Trend”

Chris Rowe
Chief Investment Officer
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