For all the analysts and pundits in the financial media, there is still no better judge of a company's health and future prospects than the owners and executives of those companies themselves, along with major institutional shareholders.

That's why insider buying and selling is a critical piece of data that is monitored by people who invest for a living.

As part of our continuing effort here at The Tycoon Report to level the playing field between individual investors and the fat cats on Wall Street, we're keeping you informed -- on a daily basis and at no cost whatsoever -- of the most significant insider buying and selling.

Below is a weekly re-cap of the past week's activity of important insider buys and sells. We publish this re-cap every Monday, and it can be accessed in your email issues or on the Tycoon Report website.

Very important note:  While these Monday re-caps are available on the Tycoon Report website, if you want the most timely information we provide on insider buying and selling you've got to be sure and read the email issues that we send each weekday morning.

 

 

BUYS

McMoran Exploration Co. (MMR)

Co-Chairman of the Board James Moffett has BOUGHT more than $1.9 million in MMR stock.

View Details


China Medical Technologies, Inc. (CMED)

CEO Wu Xiaodong has BOUGHT nearly $2.6 million in CMED stock.

View Details


Verifone Holdings, Inc. (PAY)

CEO Douglas Bergeron has BOUGHT more than $1.2 million in PAY stock.

View Details


Inventiv Health Inc. (VTIV)

CEO Blane Walter has BOUGHT more than $2 million in VTIV stock.

View Details


L-1 Identity Solutions, Inc. (ID)

Chairman, President and CEO Robert Lapenta has BOUGHT more than $1.1 million in ID stock.

View Details



SELLS

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (GMCR)

Chairman of the Board Robert Stiller has SOLD just over $8 million in GMCR stock.

View Details


Southwestern Energy Co. (SWN)

Chairman and CEO Harold Korell has SOLD almost $1.5 million worth of SWN stock.

View Details


Hansen Natural Corp. (HANS)

Chairman Rodney Sacks and Vice-Chairman Hilton Schlosberg have each SOLD more than $5.3 million in HANS stock.

View Details


Washington Post Co. (WPO)

CEO Donald Graham has SOLD more than $4 million in WPO stock.

View Details

Tycoon Staff
Chief Investment Officer
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Economic Calendar for the Week of March 16 - March 20

Monday, March 16

09:15 - Industrial Production

Release Details

    * Importance (A-F): This release merits a B-.
    * Source: Federal Reserve.
    * Release Time: 9:15 ET around the 15th of the month (data for month prior).
    * Raw Data Available At: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/Current/g17.txt.

The index of Industrial Production is a fixed-weight measure of the physical output of the nation's factories, mines, and utilities. Manufacturing production, the largest component of the total, can be accurately predicted using total manufacturing hours worked from the employment report. One of the bigger wildcards in this report is utility production, which can be quite volatile due to swings in the weather. Severe hot or cold spells can boost production as increased heating/cooling needs drive utility production up.

In addition to production, this monthly report also provides a measure of capacity utilization. Though the rate of capacity utilization is seen as a critical gauge of the slack available in the economy, the market does not completely trust this measure. Capacity is very difficult to measure, and the Fed essentially assumes that growth in capacity in any given year follows a straight line. One can therefore predict the capacity utilization rate quite accurately based on the assumption for production growth. The 85% mark is seen as a key barrier over which inflationary pressures are generated, but given revisions to these data and the difficulties with capacity measurement, the 85% mark should be viewed cautiously. It would be appropriate to look for corroborating inflation indications from commodity prices and vendor deliveries.

Highlights

    * Industrial production declined 1.8%, marking the fifth decline in the last six months. The reading for December, meanwhile, was revised lower to -2.4% from an initial -2.0% reading.
    * Manufacturing output declined -2.5% as a drop in auto and parts production accounted for more than 1.0 percentage point of the decline.
    * The output of mines declined -1.3% (vs. -1.0% in Dec.) while severe January weather led to a 2.7% increase in the output of utilities (vs. -0.2% in Dec.).
    * The output of business equipment dropped -3.7% while the production of industrial and other equipment fell -3.0%. These indications reflect the downturn in business investment that is becoming more pronounced.
    * The capacity utilization rate slipped to 72.0% (from 73.3%) and is 8.9 percentage points below the 1972-2008 average.
    * Manufacturing capacity utilization fell to 68.0% (from 69.7%), which is the lowest since records began in 1948.

Key Factors

    * The continuing economic message in the January industrial production report is that factory output will remain soft and prices will be held in check given the increase in idle capacity in the manufacturing segment that is due to weak end demand.

Big Picture

    * The outlook for industrial production has worsened.  Production held up surprisingly well through most of 2008 due in part to strong exports.  Exports grew at a 7.0% annual rate in 2005, 9.1% in 2006, 8.4% in 2007, and at an annual average rate of 7.8% through the first three quarters of 2008.  A major factor in this boom was a continually weakening dollar.  Now, the dollar has strengthened and global economies are in recession.  This will undermine export growth and take away a major support for US industrial production.  US companies will also be impacted by the darkening US economic outlook.  Production is therefore likely to trend lower.

Tuesday, March 17

08:30 - Housing Starts and Building Permits

  Release Details

  * Importance (A-F): This release merits a B-.
    * Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce
    * Release Time: 8:30 ET around the 16th of the month (data for one month prior).
    * Raw Data Available At: http://www.census.gov/const/www/newresconstindex.html.

Housing Starts are a measure of the number of residential units on which construction is begun each month. A start in construction is defined as the beginning of excavation of the foundation for the building and is comprised primarily of residential housing. Building permits are permits taken out in order to allow excavation. An increase in building permits and starts usually occurs a few months after a reduction in mortgage rates. Permits lead starts, but permits are not required in all regions of the country, and the level of permits therefore tends to be less than the level of starts over time.

The monthly national report is broken down by region: Northeast, Midwest, South, and West. Briefing recommends analyzing the regional data because they are subject to a high degree of volatility. The high volatility can be attributed to weather changes and/or natural disasters. For example, an unexpectedly high level of rain in South could delay housing starts for the region.

Highlights

    * Housing starts fell to an annualized rate of 466K units in January. That marked a 16.8% decline from the revised December reading of 560K and is 56.2% below the year-ago level. It is also the lowest since records began in 1959.
    * Starts were down in all regions, with the Northeast (-42.9%) faring the worst and the West (-6.4%) faring the best. Notably, single family starts were actually up 2.5% in the West.
    * Building permits were 521K, which was down from 547K in December and down 50.5% from the year-ago period.  Permits are also at a record low level.

Key Factors

    * This is bad economic news that will factor negatively in Q1 GDP forecasts.
    * If there is a silver lining to be found, it is in the realization that the depressed level of starts and permits suggests there will be less competition for sales of existing homes, which account for roughly 90% of all home sales. The sooner the glut of existing homes can be sold, the sooner more stable pricing will return.

Big Picture

    * The outlook for housing had started to improve in the late summer. Existing and new home sales were stabilizing. Since then, however, the national economic mood has deteriorated (to say the least). Home buying may well go into a deep freeze and housing starts will suffer as a consequence. The outlook for housing now depends a great deal on highly unpredictable political actions and an improvement in the economic national mood. The outlook is certainly not good, but there is still a chance that actions are taken to stabilize the housing industry at current low levels of activity.

08:30 - PPI: Producer Price Index

Release Details

    * Importance (A-F): This release merits a B-.
    * Source: Bureau of Labor statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
    * Release Time: Around the 11th of each month at 8:30 ET for the prior month.
    * Raw Data Available At: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.toc.htm.

The Producer Price Index measures prices of goods at the wholesale level. There are three broad subcategories within PPI: crude, intermediate, and finished. The market tracks the finished goods index most closely, as it represents prices for goods that are ready for sale to the end user. Goods prices at the crude and intermediate stages of production often provide an indication of coming (dis)inflationary pressures, but the closer you get to crude goods, the more that these prices track commodity prices which are already available in traded indexes such as the CRB (Commodity Research Bureau).

At all stages of production, the market places more emphasis on the index excluding food and energy, referred to as the core rate. Food and energy prices tend to be quite volatile and obscure trends in the underlying inflation rate. Though the market reaction is determined by the month/month changes, year/year changes are also noted by analysts. The index is not revised on a monthly basis, but annual revisions to seasonal adjustment factors can produce small adjustments to past releases.

Highlights

    * Both core and total PPI for January were stronger than expected, with increases of 0.4% (consensus 0.1%) and 0.8% (consensus 0.3%), respectively.
    * The total rate increase was due to a strong increase of 3.7% in energy prices. That is not particularly surprising or concerning.  An increase was expected and energy prices have since fallen off.  It was just a stronger one-month spike than expected.
    * The core rate increase of 0.4% is more puzzling. Core CPI prices have been flat over the past four months due to weak demand. Demand has also been weak at the producer level. Yet, core prices are up 1% over the past four months.
    * Capital equipment prices were up a solid 0.5% in January.  Other components also showed gains, such as the 0.8% increase in commercial furniture prices. This is very surprising given weak demand from business.  Autos, trucks, toys, floor coverings, textiles, and a broad range of products also showed price gains.

Key Factors

    * These hard-to-explain price gains are not likely to translate into price pressures at the consumer level.
    * The PPI data can be seen as some evidence that deflation has not taken hold at the producer level, but it should not raise concern about inflationary pressures in general.

Big Picture

    * PPI trends were highly volatile in 2008, mirroring the trends in global oil prices.  In early 2009, the core rate will rise modestly if at all, while energy prices could stabilize.  That would leave PPI near flat.  Falling global commodity prices and weak economic demand will keep inflation in check at the producer level.  If global economies remain weak in 2009, as is widely expected, inflation at the producer level will be insignificant. There may even be concerns about global deflation.

Wednesday, March 18

08:30 - CPI: Consumer Price Index

Release Details

    * Importance (A-F): This release merits a B .
    * Source: Bureau of Labor statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
    * Release Time: 8:30 ET, about the 13th of each month for the prior month.
    * Raw Data Available At: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm.

The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the price level of a fixed market basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. CPI is the most widely cited inflation indicator, and it is used to calculate cost of living adjustments for government programs and it is the basis of COLAs for many private labor agreements as well. It has been criticized for overstating inflation, because it does not adjust for substitution effects and because the fixed basket does not reflect price changes in new technology goods which are often declining in price. Despite these criticisms, it remains the benchmark inflation index.

CPI can be greatly influenced in any given month by a movement in volatile food and energy prices. Therefore, it is important to look at CPI excluding food and energy, commonly called the "core rate" of inflation. Within the core rate, some of the more volatile and closely watched components are apparel, tobacco, airfares, and new cars. In addition to tracking the month/month changes in core CPI, the year/year change in core CPI is seen by most economists as the best measure of the underlying inflation rate.
Highlights

    * The January CPI data didn't contain too many surprises as total CPI was up 0.3%, in line with expectations, while core CPI was up 0.2% versus the consensus estimate that called for a 0.1% increase.
    * Energy was the main swing factor for total CPI, as it was in the PPI report. The energy index jumped 1.7% versus December, which was the first increase in six months.
    * The owners' equivalent rent index was up 0.3% in January, but the overall housing index was unchanged.
    * The apparel index was up 0.3% while the transportation index, driven by a 6.0% increase in gasoline, increased 1.3%.
    * CPI is unchanged on a year-over-year basis while the core rate is up 1.7%.

Key Factors

    * The January CPI report didn't change the market's view on consumer prices. General business conditions have led to a moderation in inflation pressures, and with the crude and intermediate goods indexes in the PPI report having declined in each of the past six months, that should remain the case.

Big Picture

    * Inflation is back under control. The commodity-produced inflation scare of this summer is long gone. The idea that higher energy prices will necessarily lead to broad inflation pressures is dead. The concern has actually shifted to deflation, with the idea that businesses will have a hard time mantaining profit margins. Lower energy prices and weak demand are leading to some large monthly declines in CPI. CPI will remain in check well into 2009. The year-over-year increase in CPI stood at 4.9% through September '08, but plunged to 0.0% in January.

Thursday, March 19

10:00 - Philadelphia Fed Index

Release Details

    * Importance (A-F): The Philadelphia Fed Index merits a B.
    * Source: The Philadelphia Federal Reserve bank.
    * Release Time: Third Thursday of the month at 12 ET for the current month.
    * Raw Data Available At: http://www.phil.frb.org/

In Brief

There are many regional manufacturing surveys, and they tend to be ranked in order of timeliness and the importance of the region. The Philadelphia Fed's survey is first each month, actually coming out during the third week of the month for which it is reporting. Several smaller surveys are then released before the Chicago purchasing managers' report on the last day of each month. A few, such as the Atlanta and Richmond Fed surveys, are released after the NAPM and are of little value. The purchasing managers' reports are measured like the national NAPM - 50% marks the breakeven line between an expanding and contracting manufacturing sector. For the Philadelphia and Atlanta Fed indexes, 0 is the breakeven mark.

These surveys can be of some help in forecasting the national NAPM - particularly the Philadelphia and Chicago surveys which are more closely watched due to their timeliness and the fact that these regions represent a reasonable cross section of national manufacturing activities.

Highlights

    * Raw Data Available At: http://www.phil.frb.org