Aaron's Inc. (AAN)

President and CEO Robert C. Loudermilk Jr. SOLD $2.2 million in shares. View details here.

Chairman R. Charles Loudermilk Sr. SOLD $12.8 million in shares. View details here.

Activision Blizzard (ATVI)

Director Brian G. Kelly SOLD $42.1 million in shares. View details here.

President & CEO Robert Kotick SOLD $17.2 million in options and $1.5 million via option exercise. View details here.

Affiliated Managers Group Inc. (AMG)

President and CEO Sean M. Healy SOLD $5.9 million in options and $3.7 million via option exercise. View details here.

American Financial Group (AFG)

Co-CEO & Co-President Craig S. Lindner SOLD $5 million in shares. View details here.

American Science & Engineering (ASEI)

President & CEO Anthony R. Fabiano SOLD $1.3 million in shares. View details here.

AsiaInfo Holdings (ASIA)

CEO & President Steve Zhang SOLD $1.4 million in options and $355,924 via option exercise. View details here.

CEC Entertainment Inc. (CEC)

President and CEO Michael H. Magusiak SOLD $5.6 million in options and $3.5 million via option exercise. View details here.

Executive Chairman Richard M Frank SOLD $5.2 million in options and $3.3 million via option exercise. View details here.

Cerner Corp. (CERN)

President Earl H. Devanny III SOLD $1 million in shares. View details here.

Community Health Systems Inc. (CYH)

Chairman, President & CEO Wayne T. Smith SOLD $6.5 million in options and $3.2 million via option exercise. View details here.

Helen of Troy (HELE)

Chairman, CEO & President Gerald J. Rubin SOLD $1.9 million in shares and $11.9 million via option exercise. View details here.

IBM (IBM)

V.P. and Controller James J. Kavanaugh SOLD $2 million in shares and $1.3 million via option exercise. View details here.

Senior Vice President J. Randall MacDonald SOLD $1.8 million in shares. View details here.

Medicis Pharmaceutical Corp. (MRX)

CEO Jonah Shacknai SOLD $2.6 million in shares, $913,890 in options and $3.9 million via option exercise. View details here.

Morgan Stanley (MS)

Co-President Walid A. Chammah SOLD $2.2 million in shares. View details here.

Neutral Tandem Inc. (TNDM)

Director Robert C. Hawk SOLD $2.3 million in shares. View details here.

Quanta Services (PWR)

CEO John R. Colson SOLD $4.4 million in shares. View details here.

Precision Castparts Corp. (PCP)

Chairman and CEO Mark Donegan SOLD $$7.8 million in options and $3.2 million via option exercise. View details here.

Sirona Dental Systems (SIRO)

Dir., Exec. VP and COO, U.S. Op, Jeffrey Slovin SOLD $1.8 million in shares. View details here.

Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)

Chief Operating Officer Steven L. Oritz SOLD $1.5 million in shares. View details here.

Under Armour (UA)

COO Wayne Marino SOLD $2.1 million in options. View details here.

URS Corp. (URS)

Director, CEO, Chairman, Pres. Martin M. Koffel SOLD $4.7 billion in shares. View details here.

VP, Strategy & SVP, Const. Ser. Thomas W. Bishop SOLD $1.6 million in shares and $579,100 via option exercise. View details here.

Virtusa Corp. (VRTU)

Director Izhar Armony SOLD $2.7 million in shares. View details here.






Tycoon Staff
Chief Investment Officer
<>





Economic Calendar for the Week of May 25-29

TUESDAY, MAY 26

10 a.m., Conference Board Consumer Confidence

    * Importance (A-F):  This release merits a B-.
    * Source: The Conference Board.
    * Release Time: 10 a.m. Eastern on the last Tuesday of the month (data for current month).
    * Raw Data Available At: http://www.tcb-indicators.org

The Conference Board conducts a monthly survey of ,5000 households to ascertain the level of consumer confidence. The report can occasionally be helpful in predicting sudden shifts in consumption patterns, though most small changes in the index are just noise. Only index changes of at least five points should be considered significant.

The index consists of two sub-indexes -- consumers' appraisal of current conditions and their expectations for the future. Expectations make up 60% of the total index, with current conditions accounting for the other 40%. The expectations index is typically seen as having better leading-indicator qualities than the current conditions index.

Highlights

    * The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report for April experienced a notable pickup from March, rising to 39.2 from 26.9. That was the highest reading since last November, yet it still falls well short of the 62.8 reading seen for the same period a year ago.

    * The Present Situation index jumped to 23.7 from 21.9, but the Expectations index climbed to 49.5 from 30.2 as respondents were a bit more optimistic about business conditions, the availability of jobs, and income gains.

    * There was a slight pickup in plans to buy an automobile, a home and major appliances within six months.

Key Factors

    * Consumer confidence remains relatively low, and understandably so given the continued rise in the unemployment rate.  Nonetheless, the stock market rally through March and economic data in the same period that suggested the economy was in a bottoming process were welcome sources of support for depressed attitudes.

    * The pickup in consumer confidence is good to see, but it invites the telltale reminder that income gains are the real driver of spending.  Until there is a sense that the employment situation is in a sustained uptrend, we'd expect to see volatility in the consumer confidence series.

Big Picture

    * Consumer sentiment indices get way too much attention.  The simple fact is that sentiment does not correlate with consumer spending and thus has little predictive value.  Consumer spending correlates more closely with income.  Sentiment tends to reflect well-known factors such as unemployment rates and gas prices more than it predicts future spending patterns.


THURSDAY, MAY 28

8:30 a.m. Durable Goods Orders

    * Importance (A-F): This release merits a B.
    * Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.
    * Release Time: 8:30 a.m. Eastern around the 26th of the month (data for month prior).
    * Raw Data Available At: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm

The durable orders release measures the dollar volume of orders, shipments, and unfilled orders of durable goods (defined as goods whose intended lifespan is three years or more). Orders are considered a leading indicator of manufacturing activity, and the market often moves on this report despite the volatility and large revisions that make it a less-than-perfect indicator.

These problems can be minimized by looking at the breakdown of orders. The total number is often skewed by huge increases in aircraft and defense orders. An increase based solely on strength in one sector tends to be discounted, while the market is more impressed with broad-based increases in orders.

Highlights

    * The headline number for March durable orders was better than expected, as it was down 0.8% versus a consensus estimate of -1.5%.  Excluding transportation, orders declined 0.6%, which was also better than expected (consensus -1.2%).

    * There were downward revisions for the February data for both components.  Orders were shown to be up 2.1% versus an originally reported increase of 3.4% while the ex-transportation number was up 2.0% versus an originally reported increase of 3.9%.

    * Looking within the March report, shipments were down 1.7% after a 0.8% decline in February.  That won't factor well for Q1 GDP.  Meanwhile, the continued weakness in business investment was evident with a 1.7% drop in the shipment of non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft.   That followed a 0.1% increase in February and a 9.4% decline in January.

Key Factors

    * This report is mixed news at best as far as expectations are concerned and it isn't particularly good news as far as the economy is concerned.

Big Picture

    * Durable goods orders trends have been very weak in late 2008 and early 2009.  This reflects the collapse of confidence in the business sector and poor credit market conditions.  The rate of decline should ease and orders might stabilize in mid- or late 2009, but the outlook has to be described as grim.  Overseas demand is particularly weak and exports are plunging.  The business sector is in a deep slump.


FRIDAY, MAY 29

8:30 a.m. Gross Domestic Product

    * Importance (A-F): This release merits a B.
    * Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.
    * Release Time: Third or fourth week of the month at 8:30 a.m. Eastern for the prior quarter, with subsequent revisions released in the second and third months of the quarter.
    * Raw Data Available At: http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn1.htm

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the the broadest measure of economic activity. Annualized quarterly percent changes in GDP reflect the growth rate of total economic output. The figures can be quite volatile from quarter to quarter. Inventory and net export swings in particular can produce significant volatility in GDP. The final sales figure, which excludes inventories, can sometimes be helpful in identifying underlying growth trends as inventories represent unsold goods, and a large inventory increase will boost GDP but might be indicative of weakness rather than strength. The broader components of GDP are: consumption, investment, net exports, government purchases, and inventories. Consumption is by far the largest component, totaling roughly 2/3 of GDP.

In addition to the GDP figures, there are GDP deflators, which measure the change in prices in total GDP and for each component. Though the Consumer Price Index is a more closely watched inflation indicator, the GDP deflator is another key inflation measure. Unlike CPI, it has the advantage of not being a fixed basket of goods and services, so that changes in consumption patterns or the introduction of new goods and services will be reflected in the deflator.

Highlights

    * First-quarter real GDP dropped at a 6.1% annual rate in part because inventory contraction sliced a whopping 2.8% off the change.  Real final sales, excluding inventories, fell at a 3.4% annual rate.  Inventories count, though, as the lower levels reflect sharply lower production.

    * The business data in GDP were terrible.  Investment in software and equipment fell at a 33.8% annual rate.  Non-residential construction spending (offices) fell at an amazing 44.2% annual rate.  Both of these categories will continue lower.  Businesses remain in retrenchment mode even if the rate of decline might slow.

    * Residential construction spending continued to plunge, and was down at a 38% annual rate.

    * Government spending fell at a 3.9% annual rate as state spending and defense spending contracted.  This was another factor in the overall weaker GDP number compared to estimates.

    * Raw Data Available At: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

Key Factors

    * The bulls will grab onto the fact that real personal consumption expenditures rose at a stronger-than-expected 2.2% annual rate.  In a typical business cycle, consumer spending picks up first, and this might be a signal of better times to come.  Bears will note that the gain comes off horrible fourth-quarter spending, and that January and February are light consumer months in which gains can be exaggerated by strong seasonal factors.

    * Our opinion is that not too much should be read into the apparent consumer strength.  Unemployment is going higher, wage gains are limited, and credit remains constrained.

    * The analysis of the GDP data depends on whether the good consumer spending gain is seen as a leading indicator.  That makes sense in normal cycles.  This cycle is heavily dependent on government action and credit market conditions.  Consumer spending could head down again in the second quarter, and risks remain high for the economy.

Big Picture

    * The trends in the economy were moderately poor through the summer of 2008.  Then, in September, the trends tanked along with the stock market.  Some tech firms noted a significant drop-off in demand right after the mini-panic of mid-September.  These worsening trends were readily apparent in the fourth quarter GDP numbers, and will remain so into 2009 as well.  Consumer spending is weakening and will only take a significant turn for the better once the declines in payroll moderate.   Business investment is also in a sharp retrenchment.  The stronger dollar clearly hurt export demand. 

A lot now depends on overall psychology and perceptions of how well the government responds to the financial market and other problems such as exist in the auto industry.  The economic outlook is now as much a function of government action as it is of the traditional correlations and trends among macro-economic variables.


9:45 a.m. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index

    * Importance (A-F): The Chicago PMI merits a B.
    * Source: Kingsbury International Ltd. and Institute for Supply Management -- Chicago Inc.
    * Release Time: Typically the last business day of the month at 9:45 a.m.

There are many regional manufacturing surveys, and they tend to be ranked in order of timeliness and the importance of the region. The New York and Philadelphia Fed's surveys are the first each month, followed by the Chicago purchasing managers' report on the last day of each month. A few, such as the Atlanta and Richmond Fed surveys, are released after the national Institute for Supply Management data and are of little value.

The purchasing managers' reports are measured like the national ISM -- 50% marks the breakeven line between an expanding and contracting manufacturing sector. For the New York, Philadelphia and Atlanta Fed indexes, 0 is the breakeven mark. These surveys can be of some help in forecasting the national ISM data.

Highlights

    * According to the Institute of Supply Management, Chicago and Kingsbury International Ltd., the Chicago PMI jumped to 40.1 from 31.4 in March.  That is the highest reading since September and comfortably above the consensus estimate of 35.0.

    * There was encouraging news (or should we say "less bad"?) on several fronts.  The new orders index rose to 42.1 from 30.9; order backlogs increased to 36.9 from 21.3; inventories fell to 30.6 from 34.9; employment picked up to 31.8 from 28.1; production improved to 38.1 from 32.7; and prices paid dipped to 28.4 from 34.1. Supplier deliveries fell to 45.4 from 48.4.

    * The full report is available at www.kingbiz.com

Key Factors

    * The line between expansion and contraction is 50, so the April reading can be interpreted as saying that activity in the Chicago area is still contracting, but at a slower rate than before.  That understanding matches the economic view provided by the Fed in the Federal Open Market Committee policy directive.

Big Picture

    * The Chicago PMI has little overall economic value, and is only watched by the financial markets because it is usually released one day in advance of the similar national ISM manufacturing survey.  A significant move in this regional survey will therefore sometimes be seen as having predictive value for the ISM index.


9:55 a.m. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

    * Importance (A-F): This release merits a B-.
    * Source: The University of Michigan.
    * Release Time: Preliminary: 10 a.m. Eastern on the second Friday of the month (data for current month); Final: 10 a.m. Eastern on the fourth Friday of the month (data for current month).

The Michigan index is almost identical to the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index, though there are two monthly releases, a preliminary and final reading. Like the Conference Board index, it has two subindexes -- expectations and current conditions. The expectations index is a component of the Conference Board's Leading Indicators index.

Big Picture

    * Sentiment readings are a reflection of a variety of events rather than an accurate tool for forecasting consumer spending.  Gas prices and political events can have an outsized impact on sentiment.  In general, these data are of very little economic value.