The Tycoon Report

Survive 2009: Bypass the B.S.

Tuesday, December 30, 2008 | Chris Rowe

Today I'm going to hypnotize you so that, after a few months of exercise, you will have a gift.  However, the gift, if not channeled correctly, can become a curse!  But have no fear, I will hypnotize you so that you accept the gift without the curse.

The gift, will be the ability to see through the B.S. from now on (and of course, as we know, B.S. stands for Bull.....loney-Sandwiches.)  Really it can stand for anything you think fits, but generally speaking, let's agree that B.S. is what we call things that aren't what they appear to be.

I often wish I could somehow give the skeptical mindset that I have to readers of The Tycoon Report, or sort of take off my "glasses" and put them on all Tycoon readers.  This is because I'm less likely to believe someone's B.S. and when you consider how involved I am in the stock market, that mindset comes in very handy.

I grew up in Queens, New York City, moved to an apartment by the corner of Wall St. and Water St. across the street from the Wall Street office where I managed money.  In case it's not implied, I'll tell you that the chain of many events throughout my life - growing up in the big city, building a career on Wall St. (y'know, the place where everyone is trust worthy - not) - has lead to my questioning the truthfulness of just about everything, socially and economically.  This can be both a gift and a curse. 

Economic example:   I view much of what happens on Capitol Hill as a giant infomercial.  For example, the bailouts. 

Congress has constituents that vote them in so of course they have to appear to be "grilling" those who they are shelling your tax dollars out to.  The media helps by showing you headlines saying things like, "Detroit, or whatever bank, going to Capitol Hill - cap in hand" or "Congress GRILLS XYZ".

But it's all a sophisticated infomercial for you to watch.  It may not be very obvious as your congressional leaders "embarrass" the top executives by asking them if they flew in on a private jet to ask for bailout money (wink wink).  But there's truth in every good lie and if my buddy says he can get me billions of dollars but has to appear to be punching me in the face, well then I'm gonna insist that he really do it and leave a nice mark for effect.   

And after that public punch, you will see a highly rated financial news station "manage to get a special exclusive interview" with me, the CEO, so I can plead my case to the viewers , aka American public, aka voters, because that would make Congress' job easier, in front of their voters, to give me the voters' hard-earned cash.

I can write for hours on that one (in fact I just did, but cut it out of this article as I was going off topic), but I'll stop there.

I know it's very difficult for many of you to imagine the mindset of a person who grew up in Queens and Wall Street, but suffice is to say it tends to make you very skeptical, untrusting or what many people simplify by labeling as a constant state of paranoia. 

Social example:  I was dropping off a friend of a friend in front of her giant apartment building in Miami recently when she decided to strike up one last conversation before exiting the car.  Parked at the front entrance, which had heavy foot-traffic, I was in the driver's seat, she was in "shot-gun" (aka. passenger) and another friend in the back seat.  As she was talking to me, she was looking me in the eye which is what normal people typically do for most of any conversation (unless they are lying to you - and there goes my "paranoia" again). 

I spend significant time looking her in the eye while she's talking, when suddenly she stops - mid-sentence, mid-word - and raises her voice and asks: "What's the matter with you?  What's wrong?" 

Shocked, I said "What!?  What are you talking about? I'm listening to your story."

She said "The whole time I've been talking you've been looking out each window, checking the side view mirrors, checking the rear view mirror, and we're parked!  What's your deal?  What are you worried about?"

I guess nobody had ever shocked me enough by stopping mid-sentence like that, immediately motivating me to check myself on the spot.  But I thought for a few seconds and realized that this behavior is completely normal for me.  I wasn't consciously worried about anything.  But I'm constantly looking around, trying to see who sees me, what direction they are coming from, and the expression on their face or even where their hands are.

We were in a very safe neighborhood.  In fact, the building we were parked in front of is one that I used to live in when we first launched The Tycoon Report years ago.  Even though I was intimately familiar with the surroundings, I still questioned everything that was going on because that "paranoia" is just ingrained in my system. 

This is an example of paranoia being a curse. 

I thought, that's no way to live.  But since it was ingrained in my automated thinking (there has to be a better, scientific word for that) it doesn't bother me one bit.  To most people this may sound like I'm some kind of paranoid lunatic.  Some may think it's sad that some people constantly feel as though someone might be trying to get over on them.  I don't think people are always out to get me, but I do keep my radar on.  And since that's my natural mindset, it doesn't give me any discomfort - consciously.

If thinking this way about life in general is a new concept that is introduced to a person, then sure, it might be discomforting, take some of the bliss out of life, and make a person more stressed out.  It can be painful for most people to significantly raise their standards of trust worthiness right away.  It might also add stress to a child to get used to looking both ways before crossing the street, but that doesn't mean the rule should be ignored. 

So I'm not suggesting you turn your life upside down and change your trust in the social sense.  But I'm going to hypnotize you today - JUST ON THE STOCK MARKET so that you never put too much faith into anything you hear or read in 2009.  If you were to believe everything you hear about the market, you would be wrong most of the time.  If you agree with that premise, then you agree that if you dismissed everything you hear about the market as B.S., you would be right most of the time (whether you can actually confirm that or not).  Wouldn't you like to be right most of the time? 

Here's the key:

You won't ignore what you hear or read, but you just won't put your faith in it.  You'll have sort of mental Chinese wall separating the two - information and accepting that information as knowledge.  There is a big difference and not separating the two is a major weakness for most investors.  Please re-read this paragraph. 

This won't come easy, but will be an exercise for the first few months.  Here's what you'll need to do...

You'll need to think about what you have heard about the financial markets, and dismiss it as B.S..  NOBODY is trustworthy.  Get used to it, and don't be disappointed by it.  Become comfortable with it. 

When your favorite financial station features your favorite talking head (or shouting clown), dismiss what you hear as B.S..  When you read anything about a company's financials, whether it comes from an analyst or the company's management, dismiss it as B.S..  When the government talks to you about anything, dismiss it as B.S..  Especially when you read anything about government relations with other countries, dismiss it as B.S., and then go watch the movie "Charlie Wilson's War" with Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts.

Ingrain these two concepts in your head for the next 2 - 3 months:

1. Every single little thing you hear about the market is B.S..
2. ANYTHING is possible.

This may sound a bit extreme, but it's necessary in order to get you in the habit of questioning the validity of everything you hear in the market.  You'll be alive for a long time, so take these few months out and try this exercise because if you get into this habit, you'll make more and lose less money. 

You don't have to think that everyone is out to completely manipulate you by plotting against you in this big scam.  That's how reasonable skeptics quickly evolve into "conspiracy theorists".

The fact is that when you see something on the news, you tend to assume they wouldn't be lying to you or manipulating you in such a big way.  It's easy to look at something so huge like, for example, the stock market, or a war or something and think "There is no way, that these people can be so bold to sit there and drop this B.S. on the entire world."  It's easy to shy away from questioning big events out of fear of being dismissed, or laughed at, as some kind of nutty conspiracy theorist.  But big lies are often the most effective lies.

The stock market is probably the easiest place to witness how one concept seems completely nutty but in hindsight, after it happens, seems so obviously true. 

Even more so, the stock market is the easiest place to witness how any given concept can be grasped and bought into so heavily (hence the movement in the stock market, which can only happen when people put billions of dollars behind something they believe in) only to realize a year later that the village nut was absolutely right.  ("And nobody ever remembers his/her name".)

Question EVERYTHING. 

I want you to count backwards from three, and when I snap my fingers, you will not buy into anything you hear about the stock market on television, in the newspaper, or even in financial newsletters (yeah, that's right, I said it).  At the same time, you will open your mind up to the most mind-boggling possibilities and prophetic concepts.

3........ 2........ 1.......



“Profit from the Trend”

Chris Rowe
Chief Investment Officer
The Trend Rider