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Prepare Now For The End of the Real Estate Bear Market!

Tuesday, September 11, 2007 | Ethan Roberts (fuss1) Is this Spam?

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Ok, so let's agree, we're all pretty bearish on the Real Estate market right now. The Sub Prime blues, the rising unsold inventory, the tightening of credit, and the ongoing decline of prices have created the perfect storm of bearishness, which some recent writers here are predicting may last several years.

So why am I writing an article to tell you how to prepare NOW for the end of the Real Estate bear market?

Because if you prepare for it now, when it happens you will be in the best possible position to take advantage of the myriad of opportunities that will present themselves. If you only begin to prepare after we hit bottom, you may still do well, but you will miss the largest profits.

As a Real Estate investor, you need three basic things: The first is excellent credit, the second is enough money for down payments on properties, plus reserve funds for repairs, improvements, vacancies, etc. The third thing is to have a strong basic knowledge of your market area.

Excellent credit will help you receive the best possible terms (ie. lower interest rates, fewer points) on investment loans. If your present FICO score is not 700 or better, NOW is the time to work on improving that score. Some simple things you can do to raise your score are 1) Pay all your bills on time, 2) Substantially reduce the amount of your monthly balances on credit cards, and 3)Keep credit inquiries to a minimum.

As for savings, to invest in Real Estate you generally need to put at least 10% down. While 10% will give you greater leverage than putting down 20%, and thus increase your "Return on Investment (ROI)", putting down 20% will improve your interest rate, as well as eliminate the need for Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI), which can run anywhere from about $50-$100 per $100,000. So now is the time to save, save, save!

In addition, now is the time to learn the best local areas in which to invest. You should be checking out prices in different areas, and keeping a log of each area and its price variations over the next six to twelve months. If you are buying rental properties, then now is the time to investigate your rental markets to determine supply and demand, as well as rental prices. Areas of over supply and/or lower rents should be avoided. I am not a big proponent of "flipping", the rapid re-sale of homes, but I will save that for another time.

And while we are on hold, waiting for prices and interest rates to come down, now would be a great time to visit the library and do some reading on property management, landlording, and buying real estate. Look for the books with sensible titles, not the "Get rich in 30 days" type.

Do these things now and when that day finally comes when the "blood is in the street" (ie. screaming bargains are plentiful), you will be ready to lock in property purchases at prices that will deliver to you some hefty profits over time.



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  1. jester112358 (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    David,



    Just remember leverage works both ways. When things increase in value its useful. When they go down as in the current RE market, its bankrupcy for individuals lacking liquidity. Same with the equity markets of course, which is why heavily leveraged, margin account options trading can be so dangerous to your financial health.
  2. David (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Nice article. I am newer to stock market investing and have been doing the RE thing for a few years, and I do enjoy my rentals (I know, I am a sick individual). Saying that RE is the only way to go and saying the stock market is the only way to go is an age-old argument, and I have heard valid points from both sides. I like both - I think its part of a good diverse strategy for long term wealth. Playing with my stock stuff (although it isnt much $$) is nice, I can sit on my couch and drink a beer while I trade. But I enjoy the RE because I can not personally add value to my stocks. Not to be critical, but I have noticed that everyone who downplays RE to the stockmarket seems to assume that you buy your properties at FMV, 100% cash. If you take into count I can add large amounts of value in the right situation for little $$, and throw in the fact that I am doing it w/ a 0-20% down payment, it sure does paint a different picture. Just my .02!!
  3. jester112358 (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    The reason I wouldn't own real estate as an investment (as opposed to a place to live) is simple: Its a lot of work and time for maintainence. And its not really very liquid. Do people really enjoy doing repairs and collecting rent on numerous properties? A tough way to make a buck IMHO. And compare the historic returns to equities. Not very impressive.
  4. Ethan R (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Ben, just like with stocks, the true value usually holds up the best. Condos have been hit the hardest. They were like high flying nasdaq stocks during the tech stock bubble of 1999-2000. They went up the most and have come down the most. Single family homes in good locations and areas will retain their value better than the ones in poor locations. Apartments have done better because they are income producing, and as long as the rents remain stable, they won't come down too much. However, it is still difficult to sell multi-family properties because the prices that the owners want are too high for the new buyer to cash flow, based on the current rents being charged. I am seeing multi family building returns of near 5% after you factor in taxes, insurance, and vacancies. If you can get 5% in a money market and properties are no longer appreciating, and possibly even depreciating, why would anybody buy these properties?
  5. Ben S (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Well done Ethan. I'd be interested to learn if there are any specific types of properties that tend to lose more value in a downturn than others. In other words, I would assume an apartment building would actually retain more of its value, versus a single family home in the same neighborhood. I just wonder if it's possible to bargain-hunt based on type of property ... not just the condition of it.
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