Digg It |   Del.icio.us |   Printer Friendly |   PDF |   Email

Jason Jovine's Top Down Process for Trading & Investing

Tuesday, September 25, 2007 | Jason Jovine

Rating:
A nice fellow I spoke with the other day who had read all of my Tycoon articles and was very impressed by the fact that every single stock that I had recommended since I have been writing for The Tycoon Report had gone higher asked me if I could tell him how I pick stocks.

I told him that it would be difficult but that I would try.  I was just planning on e-mailing it to him directly, but I decided to share it with all of you so that it may be somewhat helpful.  I hope that it is.  Hope you enjoy.

Jason Jovine’s Top Down Process for Trading & Investing


1.    How is the overall economy doing?
2.    Where is the best place to put money right now to optimize my return? (i.e. which sector of the economy)
3.    Which company in that sector do I like the best and why?
4.    Have I used its product or service personally and do I like it?
5.    When is the right time to buy it?


I am always focused on the economy so that it will help me uncover clues as to where the best areas to invest are.  For example, when I am bullish on the economy, I am willing to take more risk and therefore might recommend riskier stocks such as Answers.com which I made money with several times in the past.  When I was neutral, I recommended CVS which I made money on.  When I am more on the bear side, I may recommend P&G.

The economy tells me where to put my money and the kind of risk I am considering taking.  I look at the economic indicators out there, and I try to interpret them the best way that I can.

Once I find a sector, I ask myself, "Which company do I like the best in that sector and why?"  I always try to become intimately familiar with the company’s product or service.  I want to be a customer so that I can understand the customer experience.

I didn’t buy Yahoo a while ago because I used one of their services, and the customer service from my perspective was poor.  This is an indication of poor management.  I haven’t followed them much since but that experience told me a lot.

I stayed away from Ford a while back because I had a terrible experience with them.

The customer experience has to be warm, pleasant, and efficient.  Companies have to stand out from their competitors.

All of that is nice, but even if I absolutely love the company, I will not pay too much for their stock.  The stock has to fall within my strike zone for me to take action.  I do not swing at everything.

I have been on Wall Street since I was 18 years old, and, between my education, where I have befriended and learned from extremely bright PhD’s in finance and economics who taught me a lot, and my experience, a lot of when I feel the right time to buy is based on my intuition.

I generally don’t follow any method for technical analysis.  I think that formulas, equations, and rules, when it comes to a subject as complicated as psychology, never work.  The mind is not predictable, and the mind is represented by the stock market.

It’s just like people; as soon as you think that you have them all figured out, they surprise you. I could name many spouses of people that have done many evil deeds who believed in their minds that the love of their life could do no wrong.
 
When it comes to trying to anticipate human behavior as reflected in the stock market, we know that greed and fear are the predominant factors but when, where, and how they will show themselves is a mystery.

When it comes to value, most people who are paying attention will see that it is self-evident.  If I saw a Bentley parked on the corner with a 'For Sale' sign that said '$25,000', I would, at the very least, look into it further.

Usually if a deal sounds too good to be true, it is.  Live by the Ronald Reagan method, “Trust, but verify.”

I can’t take what’s in my brain and give you a simple formula for it.  What I can do is let you know how I think, and maybe some of it will be contagious.

                                                                 Thanks for asking,

                                                                 Jason Jovine

Until the next time, folks, spend your hard-earned money wisely.


(Please let us know what you think about Jason Jovine's article.)
Rate his article here »



Jason Jovine
Contributing Editor
The Tycoon Report


Rate this article
Thank you for your vote!

20 Comments

Post your own comment
  1. Dylan (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Hey Paul,
    First, I strongly suggest that you remove your phone number from your comments in the future. God forbid anybody with bad intentions begins to harass you or something. Sending a bunch of pizzas to your house isn't bad - matching your number with a credit card or something is much worse.

    With respect to your experience with our Customer Service department I have to correct you. Whatever the customer service department does wrong is really a reflection upon me as the C.E.O. of Tycoon. Whatever you hear from them is really just a direct reflection of policies I have instituted in my job here.

    To take your comments a bit further, we have had much bigger problems in our customer service department then you've even mentioned -

    1. We've had technology problems where people have had problems getting emails and logging in sometimes.
    2. We've had website problems where people have tried to order and were unable to do so.
    3. We've had issues delivering emails to our customers sometimes in a timely fashion.
    4. We've had a few customers who have complained that we haven't lived up to our 24 response time.
    5. We've had a few customers complain how we could make it easier for new customers of our products to navigate the website better.
    6. We've had a few customers complain about the way we've organized the TycoonReport.com website better so that we can help people learn more efficiently.

    (We give a pro-rated refund to people at all times and a full 100% refund within the first 30 days).

    The bottom line is that I can go on and on and on with different issues we've had with our customers.

    And most of them are legitimate issues, REALLY. And it's my job as CEO to make sure we tackle these issues one at a time. So to answer your comments Paul: I KNOW WE CAN DO BETTER.

    The truth is that this business kind of took faster then we thought and I was caught flat footed. That's why we're behind the curve on some of these issues, especially the operational issues such as customer service-related issues.

    And that's 100% my fault as the boss here. The good news is that I've taken steps to get our company finally IN FRONT OF THE CURVE because we really do need to tighten up our business to make sure we give our customers the best experience possible.

    GROWING PAINS

    Perhaps the most important step is that we've increased our employees by 50% in the past 60 days! And there not just "green" employees we've hired - we're bringing on experienced managers and businesspeople with a direct understanding of how our business ticks.

    At the end of the day, I think people have given us a little leeway on some of these issues because they know we're trying to do the right thing as people - it's not like we're trying to give our customers a hard time.

    In fact, many of our customers have written into us and gave us constructive criticism and told us that they we're still being patient because they feel like they're growing with us.

    That makes me so proud when I hear that - it really makes us fight to do the best we can each and every single day.

    They tell us that the reason they stay with us is that they believe in us and believe in the value of our products.

    But we have to do better for each and every one of our customers and I promise you - all of you - that we will.

    In the coming months we will launch many new products - most of them totally free - to help you become better, more informed investors. And that's the yeardstick I use to measure our business.

    I'm truly sorry that you've had a bad experience with us Paul. I'm going to investigate it personally and see what happened.

    If there has been any fault on our end I WILL REFUND YOUR MONEY PERSONALLY. I'm also quite sure that if I do the research, present the facts to you and you agree with them and it seems like there was no fault on our part - YOU WILL APOLOGIZE.

    We're not always perfect. We're going to make mistakes. We're all human.

    I'm willing to admit ours when I find them. I hope you match my honor.

    --DYLAN JOVINE
    CEO
    TYCOON PUBLISHING
  2. Martyn (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Paul has a point here. My own experiences are not nearly as bad as he describes. I renewed a

    newsletter 6/8/07 by phone & Im still waiting for the e mail confirmation that was promised. Obviously I can check my account to verify the renewal but I fully expected the e mail. I have also had lots of problems with the log in. Just a few days ago my password was refused. After emailing customer service it must be said, however, that the response was instantaneous.

    Also had a few problems navigating the site.

    I will end this by declaring my complete satisfaction with the actual products I subscribe to-Point & Profit, ETF Master, Fallen Angels.

    Martyn
  3. Paul (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    You said it yourself--customer service has to be good. Your own Customer Service Dept. is a disaster!!!!



    They refused to allow my cancellation of ETF Master Trader insisting I had not cancelled by May 18--within 30 days' deadline. But this would have been BEFORE the telephone conference called on May 21 to answer questions from me and others. Worse yet the conference was cut short without answering any of my 7 specific questions emailed in days before via the site link. Similar questions emailed in before that were never answered either. I made a last-ditch effort from May 21 to 28 trying to restudy and find answers to my questions but ran into repeated failures to download course materials including the new chapter on options. I therefore had no choice but to cancel on May 28.



    Those clowns at the Customer Serivce simply wouldn't answer in earnest or reason with me, and worse yet continued to keep me from being able to appeal the case to higher ups. I formally lodged a complaint to American Express Dispute Resolution people with full details but they came back to me today citing your company's refusal to cancel--after more than 50 days of struggle at the hands of your Customer Service people, must be. I asked them today to re-open the case for review. Please don't think you can get away with this. Your company has totally disappointed me and wiped out the good image I had before. What a shame that you allow your Customer Service to be so totally out of order and control!!!!



    Paul Ding

    310-921-6263
  4. anthony (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Jason,very good advice Thankyou.
  5. aspi (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    wise....born of experiance.Thanks.
  6. Roy (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Jason,

    Good article, and it has obviously worked, but...

    what is "the economy" these days? The U. S. of A? Investors always have a geographic bias, but investment opportunities now are truly global. F'rinstance, I have done well with American Movil, in the growing Latin American economy, even though it would be very difficult for me to try their product. And a number of Chinese stocks have done spectacularly for me, but, again, I cannot fill up at a PetroChina gas station. But that particular economy, as you know, is growing at 3 times the rate "ours" is. And what about the many truly global companies that have action in virtually every economy on earth?
  7. harrijohn (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    sound advice
  8. jester112358 (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Excellent discussion of stock picking which follows what I do as well. First global economy, then country, then sector, then company with management quality getting top priority. Trust, but verify is a good lesson in money management in general. Money management, psychology, and a questioning attitude always trump stock picking based upon technical analysis.
  9. gary (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    sounds a little like peter lynch
  10. David (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Jason, many excellent points addressed. I gather you really favor fundamental analysis; of the economy, then sector, the company of interest and finally the timing of the investment. While I agree the actions of investors are not always predictable your seeming disdain of technical analysis is surprising to me. I have long felt that all of these are important and need to be part of the investment decision making discipline. Thanks.



    Dave Thompson

Add Your Comments

Please keep your comments relevant to this blog entry. Email addresses are never displayed.

Please fill in the missing field(s).

Important: To comment on Tycoon Report articles, you must first log in. If you are a paying customer of Tycoon, you may use the same login and password that you use normally. If you do not yet have a login, please take a moment to register below. It’s free, and you only need to do it once.

Register

(email address and password information will NOT be displayed publicly)

Name *

Email *

Password *

Subscribe to The Tycoon Report
By registering, you agree to our terms of service.

Already a member? Log in!

(you will not be taken away from this page)

Email *

Password *

Remember?

Forgot Password?




Important Notice to all stock spammers, scammers and penny stock pump-and-dumpers: You will get no respect here. Don’t bother submitting fraudulent or misleading information in the guise of an article, because we will remove it. Any piece of content submitted on this site can be removed at the sole discretion of the Tycoon staff.