The Tycoon Report

Insider Buys and Sells: Weekly Wrap-up

Monday, May 11, 2009 | Tycoon Staff

SELLS


Affiliated Computer Services (ACS)

President & CEO Lynn Blodgett SOLD $1.5 million in shares and $1.1 million via option exercise.

View details here.


Alcoa (AA)

Chairman of the Board and Director Alain J.P. Belda SOLD $1 million in shares.

View details here.


American Financial Group (AFG)

Co-CEO & Co-President Carl H. Lindner III SOLD $12 million in shares.

View details here.


AmeriStar (ASCA)

Chairman of the Board and Director Ray H. Neilsen SOLD $1.5 million in shares and $20,922 via option exercise.

View details here.


AsiaInfo Holdings (ASIA)

CEO & President Steve Zhang SOLD $2.1 million in shares and $547,199 via option exercise.

View details here.


CEC Entertainment (CEC)

Executive Chairman and Director Richard M. Frank SOLD $3.2 million in options and $2 million via option exercise.

View details here.


Cerner Corp. (CERN)

Chairman and CEO Neal L. Patterson SOLD $1.8 million in shares.

View details here.


Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW)

Chairman and Director Charles R. Schwab SOLD $5.4 million in shares. View details here.

Additionally, EVP and General Counsel Carrie E. Dwyer SOLD $2.5 million in shares and $2.1 million via option exercise. View details here.


Cullen Frost Bankers (CFR)

Chairman, CEO and President Richard W. Evans Jr. SOLD nearly $3 million in shares and $2.8 million via option exercise.

View details here.


CyberSource Corp. (CYBS)

EVP, Prod. Dev. and CTO Robert Ford SOLD $1.4 million in options.

View details here.


DaVita Inc. (DVA)

Chairman and CEO Kent J. Thiry SOLD $12.8 million in options and $1.1 million via option exercise.

View details here.


Dendreon (DNDN)

Sr. V.P. and Chief Scientific Officer David Urdal SOLD $6.9 million in options and $2.5 million via option exercise.

View details here.


FedEx (FDX)

Chairman/President/CEO Frederick W. Smith SOLD $17.4 million in shares and $16.8 million via option exercise.

View details here.

President and CEO of FedEx Express David J. Bronczek SOLD $2.4 million in options and $2.2 million via option exercise.

View details here.

Exec. V.P. and CFO Alan B. Graf Jr. SOLD $2.4 million in options and $2.2 million via options exercise.

View details here.


First Solar (FSLR)

Chief Financial Officer Jens Meyerhoff SOLD $2.7 million in shares and $200,000 via option exercise.

View details here.


FTI Consulting (FCN)

Chairman of the Board and Director Dennis J. Shaughnessy SOLD $5.5 million in shares and $2.3 million via option exercise.

View details here.


Genesee & Wyoming (GWR)

CEO and President John C. Hellmann SOLD $1.4 million in shares and $879,373 via option exercise.

View details here.


Gilead Sciences (GILD)

President and COO John F. Milligan SOLD $8.3 million in options and $1.7 million via option exercise.

View details here.


Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR)

Chairman of the Board and Director Robert P. Stiller SOLD $14.6 million in shares.

View details here.


Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC)

Executive Chairman and Director Noel G. Watson SOLD $2.1 million in shares.

View details here.


Men's Wearhouse Inc. (MW)

Chairman of the Board and CEO George Zimmer SOLD $1.8 million in shares.

View details here.


Meritage Homes (MTH)

President and CEO Steven J. Hilton SOLD $1.62 million in options and SOLD $1.45 million via options exercise. View details here.

Additionally, Executive V.P. and CFO Larry Wayne Seay SOLD $638,700 worth of options and SOLD $578.850 through options exercise. View details here.


Morningstar (MORN)

Chief Operating Officer Tao Huang SOLD $2.5 million in options and $901,795 via option exercise.

View details here.


Rock-Tenn (RKT)

Executive V.P. and CFO Steven C. Voorhees SOLD $1.5 million in options and $560,000 via option exercise.

View details here.


Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK)

Sr. V.P. and CFO Theodore D. Crandall SOLD nearly $1.1 million in shares and SOLD $832,050 via option exercise. View details here.


St Jude Medical Inc. (STJ)

Executive V.P. and CFO John C. Heinmiller SOLD $1.7 million in shares and $1.8 million via option exercise.

View details here.


Southwestern Energy (SWN)

Subsidiary President Gene A. Hammons SOLD nearly $1.1 million in options and $480,000 via option exercise.

View details here.

Additionally, Director Kenneth R. Mourton SOLD $4 million in shares.

View details here.

TransDigm Group (TDG)

CEO W. Nicholas Howley SOLD $3.6 million in shares and $1 million via option exercise.

View details here.


Under Armour (UA)

COO Wayne Marino SOLD $1.2 million in options and $100,000 via option exercise.

View details here.


Walt Disney (DIS)

Sr. EVP & CFO Thomas O. Staggs SOLD $1.9 million in shares.

View details here.


WMS Industries (WMS)

Exec. V.P., CFO and Treas. Scott D. Schweinfurth SOLD nearly $1.8 million in options, plus $577,000 via option exercise.

View details here.


W.W. Grainger Inc. (GWW)

Chairman Emeritus Director Richard L. Keyser SOLD $1.5 million worth of shares. View details here.

Also, Sr. V.P. and General Counsel John L. Howard SOLD $1.8 million in options and SOLD $804,000 through option exercise. View details here.


Economic Calendar for the Week of May 11-15

WEDNESDAY, MAY 13

8:30 a.m. Retail Sales

    * Importance (A-F):  This release merits an A-.
    * Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.
    * Release Time: 8:30 a.m. Eastern around the 13th of the month (data for one month prior).
    * Raw Data Available At: http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/advtable.html

The retail sales report is a measure of the total receipts of retail stores. The changes in retail sales are widely followed as the most timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns. Retail sales are often viewed ex-autos, as auto sales can move sharply from month-to-month. It is also important to keep an eye on the gas and food components, where changes in sales are often a result of price changes rather than shifting consumer demand.

Highlights

    * The March Retail Sales report put an abrupt end to the good news we had seen in the retail sales reports in January and February. Total sales declined -1.1% (consensus 0.3%) while sales, excluding autos, fell -0.9% (consensus 0.0%).

    * The February data did see upward revisions for total sales (to 0.3% from -0.1%) and ex-auto sales (to 1.0% from 0.7%).

    * The only categories that saw sales increases in March were in the staples area, with food and beverage stores up 0.5% and health and personal care stores up 0.4%.  Otherwise, every other category was down with electronics and appliance stores (-5.9%) leading the way, followed by motor vehicle and parts dealers (-2.3%), miscellaneous store retailers (-2.3%), nonstore retailers (-1.7%), furniture and home furnishings stores (-1.7%), gasoline stations (-1.6%), and food services and drinking places (-1.4%).

Key Factors

    * The fairly broad declines in sales for retail businesses in March has created some concern that the improvement in January and February might have been owed more to a temporary bounce than anything else following some bleak sales reports in the fourth quarter.

    * This isn't good economic news and it certainly fits more with the weak employment data than the surprisingly good reports seen in January and February. It is a setback that is apt to cause a number of investors to second guess the big run seen in the retail stocks.

Big Picture

    * Retail sales fell off dramatically starting in September.  That was when the financial markets fell apart and the news became apocalyptic.  Auto sales have also collapsed as the news of potential auto company bankruptcies dominated headlines.  Retail sales are likely to remain weak for quite a while given the current trends in employment, and the negative wealth impact for depressed prices for homes and stocks.


THURSDAY, MAY 14

8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index

    * Importance (A-F): This release merits a B-.
    * Source: Bureau of Labor statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
    * Release Time: Around the 11th of each month at 8:30 a.m. Eastern for the prior month.
    * Raw Data Available At: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.toc.htm

The Producer Price Index measures prices of goods at the wholesale level. There are three broad subcategories within PPI: crude, intermediate, and finished. The market tracks the finished goods index most closely, as it represents prices for goods that are ready for sale to the end user. Goods prices at the crude and intermediate stages of production often provide an indication of coming (dis)inflationary pressures, but the closer you get to crude goods, the more that these prices track commodity prices which are already available in traded indexes such as the CRB (Commodity Research Bureau).

Highlights

    * Total March PPI surprised the markets with a 1.2% decline.  It was expected to be flat.  A 5.5% decline in energy prices and a 0.7% drop in food prices were the reasons for the decline.

    * Oil prices have firmed recently so the energy decline will not be sustainable.

    * The markets may largely discount the surprise good news in the total index.  Of more interest in our opinion is that the core rate in PPI finally dipped to zero.  It had held up stubbornly in the face of clearly weak demand in the industrial sector. It was up 0.4% in January and 0.2% in February.

Key Factors

    * The core rate is likely to continue to be weak in coming months.

    * In terms of the inflation outlook, the core rate provides more important good news than the overall rate.

Big Picture

    * PPI trends were highly volatile in 2008, mirroring the trends in global oil prices.  In early 2009, the core rate will rise modestly if at all, while energy prices could stabilize.  That would leave PPI near flat.  Falling global commodity prices and weak economic demand will keep inflation in check at the producer level.  If global economies remain weak in 2009, as is widely expected, inflation at the producer level will be insignificant. There may even be concerns about global deflation.


FRIDAY, MAY 15

8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index

    *  Importance (A-F): This release merits a B .
    * Source: Bureau of Labor statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
    * Release Time: 8:30 a.m. Eastern, about the 13th of each month for the prior month.
    * Raw Data Available At: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm

The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the price level of a fixed market basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. CPI is the most widely cited inflation indicator, and it is used to calculate cost of living adjustments for government programs and it is the basis of COLAs for many private labor agreements as well. It has been criticized for overstating inflation, because it does not adjust for substitution effects and because the fixed basket does not reflect price changes in new technology goods which are often declining in price. Despite these criticisms, it remains the benchmark inflation index.

Highlights

    * The March CPI mirrored the PPI data in that energy prices fell a surprising 3.0%. This is probably not sustainable given recent trends in commodity prices. The CPI core rate trend differed from PPI, however.

    * The core rate increase of 0.2% marked the third straight month of such an increase. This follows 0.1%, 0.0%, 0.1%, and 0.0% for September through December, respectively.  There is at least a partial explanation for this from likely one-time impacts. Tobacco prices jumped 11.0%. This added over 0.1% to the core rate and the BLS noted that it accounted for over 60% of the core rate increase.

    * The other major factor was a 0.6% increase in new autos.

    * Other categories such as hotel rates (-2.4%), used cars and truck prices (-1.7%), personal computer prices (-1.7%), and apparel costs (-0.2%) revealed the impact of weak demand.

Key Factors

    * It is very possible that the core rate drops to near zero the next couple of months.

    * The CPI data are borderline but don't reflect significant price pressures. Not too much emphasis should be placed on the slightly higher-than-expected core rate increase.

Big Picture

    * Inflation trends have weakened and might weaken further as 2009 progresses.  The decline in energy prices after the summer spike has taken CPI down to -0.4% on a year-over-year basis as of March 2009 data.  Energy prices may not continue lower, but the core rate should ease from its 1.8% year-over-year rate due to weak demand.  Low inflation rates are likely to continue through 2009 although deflation is not likely.



9:15 a.m. Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production

    *  Importance (A-F):  This release merits a B-.
    * Source: Federal Reserve.
    * Release Time: 9:15 a.m. Eastern around the 15th of the month (data for month prior).
    * Raw Data Available At: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/Current/g17.txt

The index of Industrial Production is a fixed-weight measure of the physical output of the nation's factories, mines, and utilities. Manufacturing production, the largest component of the total, can be accurately predicted using total manufacturing hours worked from the employment report. One of the bigger wildcards in this report is utility production, which can be quite volatile due to swings in the weather. Severe hot or cold spells can boost production as increased heating/cooling needs drive utility production up.

Highlights

    * Industrial production declined 1.5% in March, marking the fifth straight decline in the series. The March number was worse than the expected 0.9% decline and, notably, it rounded out a quarter in which output dropped at an annual rate of 20%.

    * By industry group, manufacturing declined 1.7% in March while mining fell 3.7% and utilities increased 1.8%.

    * A return to more normal seasonal temperatures helped the improvement in utilities while a continued drop in oil and gas well drilling weighed on mining. The decline in manufacturing was offset a bit by a slight pickup in the output of motor vehicles and parts

    * Total capacity utilization dropped to 69.3%, which is a historic low for the series, which began in 1967. Manufacturing capacity utilization dipped to 65.8% from 66.9% and is the lowest since records began in 1948.

Key Factors

    * The report overall is quite simply bad economic news and continues to reflect a weak demand environment that is going to help keep prices in check.

Big Picture

    * The outlook for industrial production has worsened.  Production held up surprisingly well through most of 2008 due in part to strong exports.  Exports grew at a 7.0% annual rate in 2005, 9.1% in 2006, 8.4% in 2007, and at an annual average rate of 7.8% through the first three quarters of 2008.  A major factor in this boom was a continually weakening dollar.  Now, the dollar has strengthened and global economies are in recession.  This will undermine export growth and take away a major support for US industrial production.  U.S. companies will also be impacted by the darkening US economic outlook.  Production is therefore likely to trend lower.



9:55 a.m. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

    * Importance (A-F): This release merits a B-.
    * Source: The University of Michigan.
    * Release Time: Preliminary: 10 a.m. Eastern on the second Friday of the month (data for current month); Final: 10 a.m. Eastern on the fourth Friday of the month (data for current month).

The Michigan index is almost identical to the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index, though there are two monthly releases, a preliminary and final reading. Like the Conference Board index, it has two subindexes -- expectations and current conditions. The expectations index is a component of the Conference Board's Leading Indicators index.

Big Picture

    * Sentiment readings are a reflection of a variety of events rather than an accurate tool for forecasting consumer spending.  Gas prices and political events can have an outsized impact on sentiment.  In general, these data are of very little economic value.