Digg It |   Del.icio.us |   Printer Friendly |   PDF |   Email

WARNING: Now the Market Will Drop Fast! Here's Why...

Tuesday, June 23, 2009 | Chris Rowe

Rating:
Last month (May 26), I wrote a Tycoon Report article titled "BEWARE: June Stock Market CRASH! Here's Why..."

In that article, I told you that in my options trading service, The Trend Rider, I already took profits on most bullish positions and started initiating bearish positions.  

Last month I gave you the heads-up, and hopefully you started reducing bullish exposure and preparing to profit from the coming decline.  I said I wouldn't be aggressively bearish until the "final shoe drops." 

I said I would let you know when that happens. 

It's Time to Profit from the Pain


Now I'm telling you that you MUST reduce your bullish exposure.

And if you're like me and you know that making money from a downtrend is the same exact thing as making money from an uptrend, then you should take your bearish positions right now to profit from a bloody market

You did not -- I repeat -- did NOT miss the boat. 

This market is going to get smashed up for a little while.  You are going to start to hear it in the financial media because they will see the external market averages (S&P 500, Dow Industrials and Nasdaq) continuing lower.  We saw this early in the internal market last week.

What Should You Do Next?


If you have bullish positions on the table right now, you have some choices to make right now: exit them, hedge them well or, at the very least, reduce the exposure by selling half and sitting in cash. 

Personally, I'm a big fan of just making serious profits on the downside move by taking bearish positions, which is what we are doing right now at The Trend Rider.

In last month's article, I said the signals might scream at me on a Wednesday and, because I write for The Tycoon Report on Tuesdays, it might take nearly a week for me to update you.  (Visit this link to read the article). 

That's exactly what happened. 

This past Wednesday night, I saw all I needed to see, and now I have nine bearish positions on the table.  I told my subscribers (actually, I shouted it from the rooftops) to reduce bullish exposure in their accounts, since I know many of the members have money invested in many other stock positions outside of my option recommendations. 

Well, they got the early alert.  But this is still a very timely article for you because there is more downside to go.  You might think the market has already sold off, and you've missed the chance. 

WRONG!

The fun ... and profits ... are just getting started.

Look Out Below


Get out of the way -- the bears are stampeding (yes, on Wall Street, bears can stampede), and if you're a bull right now, you're gonna get torn to bits.

Get bearish.  Don't just run away from it -- profit from the decline. 

The internal markets are clearly showing that supply is in control.  The trend is showing that more and more stocks are breaking support levels, and more and more stocks are moving lower. 

In other words, don't wait until the popular market averages "confirm" what I've been telling you.  In fact, it already has.  Look below. ...

First, we all knew there was resistance right at about 950 on the S&P 500.  It has had problems breaking through the January top for a couple of weeks now.  (See the red horizontal line and gold arrows.)

Then we saw the third fan line violated in mid-May.  The fan lines are the three blue trendlines you see below.  Notice, after each trendline is violated, that trendline becomes the new resistance level (red arrows). 

Each time a trendline is violated, we draw a new one.  When the third one is violated, it's considered an official reversal of the uptrend.  Notice, after finding resistance after violating the third trendline, the external market (S&P 500) traded sideways. 

(Double-click to Enlarge Image)

We can also see, in the momentum indicators, a negative divergence.  You can see that the higher highs in the market occurred where we also saw lower highs in the Relative Strength (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) -- see the purple dots and diagonal red lines. 

This is a precursor to a reversal of the uptrend.

Position Yourself to Profit from a Plummet


The external market and the internal market agree.  Anyone who tells you, now, that the market has more upside should not be in the market. 

ANYTHING can happen, of course.  But the odds enormously favor more downside during the coming weeks to months. 

And if you -- after seeing all the signs you are seeing, or at least hearing me tell you that there is about an 85%-90% chance the market moves lower based on what I'm seeing -- do NOT significantly reduce your bullish exposure ... better yet, if you don't get positioned to profit from stocks moving lower ... then you may not belong in the market right now.

Remember, you have not missed out on all the market's downside. There is still money to be made, and there is no time like the present to benefit from the market's next move.

This is a high-probability outcome.  Play it and get paid this time instead of watching your recent gains disappear.  Don't wait another minute. 

Many of you won't listen.  Many will consider what I'm saying and you'll sit and think about what to do, or wait for the market to move up again first.  The rest of you will make money -- as long as you take action.  Execute!

We have had so many people, who've been listening to what I've been saying, come and apply for a membership to The Trend Rider, that the available slots have been filled.  Congratulations to those who got in, and are now positioned to make bank on this downward move. 

Get on our waiting list, and enjoy a free basic options education in the interim, by visiting this link today to get started.

See ya next week.  And remember,  it's all about execution -- don't wait!

(Please let us know what you think about Chris Rowe's article.)
Rate his article here »

“Profit from the Trend”

Chris Rowe
Chief Investment Officer
The Trend Rider


Rate this article
Thank you for your vote!

15 Comments

Post your own comment
  1. Geraldine (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Chris, Tycoon report readers have not had an update about any change in market stance since your last article on June 23 "Now the Market will drop fast! Here's why". In that article, you repeatedly told readers to get bearish, shouting from the rooftops and all that. Many of us I'm sure also acted on Teeka's 9 ways to play the next move lower ETF recommendations. After what happened the past week, we'd appreciate at least an update so we won't feel that we're being left in the lurch.
  2. Grant (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    The only thing that can prevent the market from cratering is investor sentiment. We have that in spades! I guess that was one of the variables you were talking about in the "Outcome". So I stayed short and took a 10% haircut. C'est la vie!
  3. Chris R (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    So grant, what I'm saying is there are two things we hope to be right about when making stockmarket calls.

    1. Odds. We want to be right about our assessment of the probability of the next move being down or up etc.

    2. Outcome. We want to be right in what we thought was going to happen.



    We have zero control over #2. We have complete control of #1 because the more we learn about the market, the more we understand when odds favor a particular outcome, and why.

    C
  4. Chris R (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    CHRIS ROWE HERE

    Grant,

    I can't tell you not to worry. But I will say the more you know about market analysis, the less fearful you will be. Taking ETF Master trader is a great start. You might also look into my Internal Strength System (CRISS). You should understand that OF COURSE the market can turn around and gun higher. That doesn't change the fact that odds strongly favor a decline over the course of the next several weeks or maybe months.

    I can't put a number on the odds, but if hypothetically we can say there is a 95% chance the market moves lower, that doesnt' mean it cant move higher instead.

    Markets change, and the unwillingness to change with it is an expensive lesson waiting to happen. But when you understand the market indicators, and what they mean, and why they work, you won't be as likely to be unnerved by daily market fluctuations.

    Nian - WIndow dressing is just one of many many factors we should consider when investing. Sure, I think about it, but very little in comparison to all other factos I consider.

    Chris
  5. Grant (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    There are so many scam artists on the internet that I rarely take advice from them. I initially subscribed to Teeka's ETF MasterTrader and over the past several months have been following the Tycoon Report closely. I find it to be excellent. Therefore, I took your advice - reduced most of my long positions and moved to inverse S&P500 and Nasdaq ETF's. However, the positive market response today hurt my portfolio. Although you didn't mention maintaining a stop loss, Teeka did and as a CASH member, I took his advice as well. I'm hoping that this upward trend stops quickly or I'm stopped out with an ugly loss. I'm sure that I'm not alone. Tell me not to worry. I'll believe you.



    Grant
  6. Nian (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Chris, do you think the upcoming end-of-quarter window dressing and July earning season will actually push the stock back-up? It has fallen hard in the last weeks and it may be due to a rebound, just in time for the above mentioned factors. Thanks. -Niles
  7. Chris R (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Maria,

    The 50% retracement is just one of many things I would consider as I watch the market. And yes, the BPI has to be in Xs if I am going to be aggressive bullish.

    CHRIS ROWE
  8. Maria J (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    if we are playing the odd now which is more bearish, is it the right time to watch the retracement of 50% of S&P and once reach, go for BULL? or need to see also the BPI of NYSE direction trend?



    Just to let you know that I was so upset with my first position with you that I lost but, as days goes by, I am starting to understand what you meant "no emotion" and just following the indicators saying and just play the odd.



    Keep it up Chris!

    Jeng from Thailand
  9. Philip (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Chris this should help a lot of people if they listen and take action.

    I went short a week ago. Can you comment on the drop of US $ dollar today and what the impact will be on commodity stocks in this down trend if the $ keeps falling?

    Thanks
  10. Marty (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Good stuff,



    but what will happen, when FED mention in the next FED´s protocol that they will raise the rate, if financial stimulus continue to show positive progress?

Add Your Comments

Please keep your comments relevant to this blog entry. Email addresses are never displayed.

Please fill in the missing field(s).

Important: To comment on Tycoon Report articles, you must first log in. If you are a paying customer of Tycoon, you may use the same login and password that you use normally. If you do not yet have a login, please take a moment to register below. It’s free, and you only need to do it once.

Register

(email address and password information will NOT be displayed publicly)

Name *

Email *

Password *

Subscribe to The Tycoon Report
By registering, you agree to our terms of service.

Already a member? Log in!

(you will not be taken away from this page)

Email *

Password *

Remember?

Forgot Password?




Important Notice to all stock spammers, scammers and penny stock pump-and-dumpers: You will get no respect here. Don’t bother submitting fraudulent or misleading information in the guise of an article, because we will remove it. Any piece of content submitted on this site can be removed at the sole discretion of the Tycoon staff.