Sears Insider Dumps $67 Million in Shares
Monday, December 22, 2008 | Tycoon StaffThat's why insider buying and selling is a critical piece of data that is monitored by people who invest for a living.
As part of our continuing effort here at The Tycoon Report to level the playing field between individual investors and the fat cats on Wall Street, we're keeping you informed -- on a daily basis and at no cost whatsoever -- of the most significant insider buying and selling.
Below is a weekly re-cap of the past week's activity of insider buys and sells of $10 million or more. We publish this re-cap every Monday, and it can be accessed in your email issues or on the Tycoon Report website.
Very important note: While these Monday re-caps are available on the Tycoon Report website, if you want the most timely information we provide on insider buying and selling you've got to be sure and read the email issues that we send each weekday morning.
BUYS
Ardea Biosciences Inc. (RDEA)
Ardea 10% Owners Baker Bros. Capital, 14159 Capital, Baker Brothers Life Sciences Capital, Baker Biotech Capital, Baker/Tisch Capital, and Director Kevin Tang have BOUGHT $12.66 million in RDEA stock.
Retail Ventures Inc. (RVI)
Retail Ventures Chairman Jay Schottenstein and 10% Owner SEI Inc. have BOUGHT $12.44 million in RVI stock.
Vector Intersect Security Acquisition Corp. (VTRQ)
Vector Intersect President & CEO Yaron Eitan has BOUGHT $12 million in VTRQ stock.
SELLS
American Public Education Inc. (APEI)
American Public Education 10% Owners ABS Capital Partners, ABS Partners, and EVP Harry Wilkins have SOLD $301.01 million in APEI stock.
JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. (JBHT)
JB Hunt 10% Owner JB Hunt LLC and Johnelle Hunt has SOLD $94.01 million in JBHT stock.
Sears Holding Corp. (SHLD)
Sears Director Richard Perry has SOLD $67.67 million in SHLD stock.
National Semiconductor Corp. (NSM)
National Semiconductor 10% Owner Relational Investors has SOLD $52.84 million in NSM stock.
Public Storage (PSA)
Public Storage 10% Owner Wayne Hughes has SOLD $33.89 million in PSA stock.
Quest Software Inc. (QSFT)
Quest Executive Chairman Vincent Smith has SOLD $27.41 million in QSFT stock.
Copart Inc. (CPRT)
Copart Director Barry Rosenstein has SOLD $13.87 million in CPRT stock.
Unitrin Inc. (UTR)
Unitrin 10% Owner Singleton Group LLC has SOLD $11.16 million in UTR stock.
Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR)
Dollar Tree Chairman MacOn Brock plans to SELL $10.35 million in DLTR stock.
Economic Calendar for the week of December 22 to December 26
Tuesday, Dec. 23
8:30 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
- Importance (A-F): This release merits a B.
- Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.
- Release Time: Third or fourth week of the month at 8:30 ET for the prior quarter, with subsequent revisions released in the second and third months of the quarter.
- Raw Data Available At: http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn1.htm.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the the broadest measure of economic activity. Annualized quarterly percent changes in GDP reflect the growth rate of total economic output. The figures can be quite volatile from quarter to quarter. Inventory and net export swings in particular can produce significant volatility in GDP. The final sales figure, which excludes inventories, can sometimes be helpful in identifying underlying growth trends as inventories represent unsold goods, and a large inventory increase will boost GDP but might be indicative of weakness rather than strength. The broad components of GDP are: consumption, investment, net exports, government purchases, and inventories. Consumption is by far the largest component, totalling roughly 2/3rds of GDP.
In addition to the GDP figures, there are GDP deflators, which measure the change in prices in total GDP and for each component. Though the consumer price index is a more closely watched inflation indicator, the GDP deflator is another key inflation measure. Unlike CPI, it has the advantage of not being a fixed basket of goods and services, so that changes in consumption patterns or the introduction of new goods and services will be reflected in the deflator.
With both GDP and the deflator, the market tends to focus on the quarter/quarter change. Year/year changes are also cited frequently, though they do not provide the most timely indications of economic activity or inflation. The bond market often reacts to GDP, though the price moves are typically small, as much of the GDP data is easily predicted using monthly economic releases such as personal consumption, durable goods shipments, construction spending, international trade, and inventories.
Quarterly GDP reports are broken down into three announcements: advance, preliminary, and final. After the final revision, GDP is not revised again until the annual benchmark revisions each July. These revisions can be quite large and usually affect the past five years of data.
Big Picture
The trends in the economy were moderately poor through the summer. Then, in September, the trends tanked along with the stock market. Some tech firms noted a significant dropoff in demand right after the mini-panic of mid-September. These worsening trends will be apparent in the fourth quarter GDP numbers, and probably into 2009 as well. Consumer spending is weakening and will only take a significant turn for the better once the declines in payroll moderate. Business investment is also in retreat. The stronger dollar is now weakening export demand as well. A lot now depends on overall psychology and perceptions of how well the government responds to the financial market and other problems such as exist in the auto industry. There is not yet much concern about the huge looming federal deficits, but that will probably become a topic as the next fiscal stimulus package is enacted in 2009. The economic outlook is now as much a function of government action as it is of the traditional correlations and trends among macro-economic variables.
10:00 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
- Importance (A-F): This release merits a B-.
- Source: The University of Michigan.
- Release Time: Preliminary: 10:00 ET on the second Friday of the month (data for current month); Final: 10:00 ET on the fourth Friday of the month (data for current month).
The Michigan index is almost identical to the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index, though there are two monthly releases, a preliminary and final reading. Like the Conference Board index, it has two subindexes - expectations and current conditions. The expectations index is a component of the Conference Board's Leading Indicators index.
Big Picture
Sentiment readings are a reflection of a variety of events rather than an accurate tool for forecasting consumer spending. Gas prices and political events can have an outsized impact on sentiment. In general, these data are of very little economic value. Sentiment has been low all year despite rising consumer spending. This broken clock will now happen to reflect the correct time. The consumer will be pulling back.
Wednesday, Dec. 24
8:30 Durable Goods Orders
- Importance (A-F): This release merits a B.
- Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.
- Release Time: 8:30 ET around the 26th of the month (data for month prior).
- Raw Data Available At: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm.
The durable orders release measures the dollar volume of orders, shipments, and unfilled orders of durable goods (defined as goods whose intended lifespan is three years or more). Orders are considered a leading indicator of manufacturing activity, and the market often moves on this report despite the volatility and large revisions that make it a less than perfect indicator. These problems can be minimized by looking at the breakdown of orders. The total number is often skewed by huge increases in aircraft and defense orders. An increase based solely on strength in one sector tends to be discounted, while the market is more impressed with broadbased increases in orders.
Also notable in this report is the narrow category of nondefense capital goods. These goods mirror the GDP category producers' durable equipment (PDE) -- the largest component of business investment. Shipments of nondefense capital goods are a good proxy for PDE in the current quarter, while nondefense capital goods orders provide an indication of PDE growth in the quarters ahead.
Big Picture
Durable goods orders are starting to weaken. Durable goods orders, and total factory orders (which include nondurables orders), had shown surprising strength given overall economic conditions. Now, however, the widespread broadcast of an economic crisis has manufacturing firms pulling back. In addition, the weak dollar has turned stronger. The weak dollar has been a huge boost to US exports and durable goods orders. This impact will fade over late 2008 and early 2009. The manufacturing sector, which had been extremely resilient, will now probably head into a sectoral recession.
Highlights
- Durables goods orders were weak across the board in October. There is not much analysis necessary - businesses are becoming much more cautious and are cutting back on major orders.
- The strengthening dollar and weak overseas economies are also now negatives for factory orders overall after having provided significant support in recent years.
