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To Buy or Not to Buy?

Thursday, March 6, 2008 | Jason Jovine

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When people want to buy a car, a new article of clothing, or some other good or service, they usually wait for a sale to occur. For example, say that you really wanted a new coat.  The price of the coat was $1,000, but you knew that there would be a 30% off sale in two weeks.

Would you buy the coat for $1,000 or would you wait two weeks to pay $700?

If you bought the coat now for $1,000, you are, in essence, paying an extra $300 for the ability to wear the coat before the people who wait for the sale. This can be said about many items (e.g. DVD’s, IPOD’s, etc).

It’s all based on supply and demand. When these items first come out, everyone and their mother wants to own them (e.g. high demand). When the demand is high, suppliers rush to capitalize on this demand. Later, prices fall and supply and demand reach equilibrium.

When it comes to the market, the case is a bit different. Let me explain…

When stocks (or real estate) go higher, it creates a sort of psychological mania in which most people (usually laypeople) want to jump in so they don’t miss out on the action.

On the other hand, when the market looks like hell many people run for the hills, and people become afraid. As we know, greed and fear drive the stock market.

Smart money usually takes a different approach and so should you…

When a market, whether the stock market, real estate market, or any other market, is artificially high for no fundamentally sound reason, you should not be buying. This is what the smart money does.

When a market, whether the stock market, real estate market, or any other market, is artificially low for no fundamentally sound reason, you should be buying. This is what the smart money does.

Smart money has been buying lately…

Insider buying was up 35% in February compared to the February of last year. Further, it was up 49% from two years ago. Moreover, selling has been down.

Much of the buying consisted of large capitalization stocks, including financial and tech companies.

Yours truly…

I recommended Citigroup(C) at about $28 per share on 1/8/08. Then I told you to average down and buy more on 1/24/08 at about $25, bringing our cost basis down to $26.5. As I write this article, Citigroup is trading just above $22. I suggest that you buy more. This will bring our cost basis down to around $25.5. Look at the one year daily chart for Citigroup:



Citigroup has a book value of $22.74 per share, so they are currently trading below their book value. Book value is the net worth of common equity according to a firm’s balance sheet.

With respect to Citigroup, for the year ending on 12/31/07, they had $113,598 million in Total Stockholder equity. They also had $4,995 million shares outstanding. If you divide Total Stockholder equity by the shares outstanding, you are left with a book value of $22.74 per share.

Book Value is commonly worded on Wall Street as what would be left for shareholders if the company were liquidated. I don’t want to rely on book value as a “floor” for Citigroup, but I do think that it is cheap here over the long term.

In closing…


There are both optimists, as well as pessimists, when it comes to the market. But you need to train yourself to buy good companies on the dips. Overall, this will provide you with superior returns.

I remember that I recommended CVS back on 10/17/06 at $31 per share. Then, I told you to average down at $29 on 12/4/06. This brought our cost basis down to $30. Take a look at just a couple of the comments that people sent to me back then:

1.    “Rare that someone has the confidence to stick their neck out! I for one really appreciate it, and I'm buying more CVS. DB”

2.    “You guys are my favorite free newsletter. I feel I learn more from you than anyone else. I appreciate your comments about the markets in general and specific stocks, such as CVS, in fact I just put an order in for 100 shares. Thanks also for your honesty and keep up the great works. Also I have never written to another web site to compliment them on their free service. Just wanted you to know that also. A reader who enjoys your newsletter. I imagine your paid services are great! Maybe some day when I have more income. Thanks!”

Now take a look at what happened to CVS:



I did not show you this to impress you. Rather, I showed it to you to impress upon you that it takes courage to do what is not popular. You have to be willing to buy good companies at good prices. You have to be willing to take some risk, and you have to get into the market when most people are too scared, and get out of the market when most people want to get in.

Be a leader, not a follower!!!!

Until the next time folks, spend your hard earned money wisely.



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Jason Jovine
Contributing Editor
The Tycoon Report




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20 Comments

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  1. Geno (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    I have been following Tycoon for about 18 months and I am very happy with all the information and research I get for free. I almost bought CITI back in January, but for I decided to wait just two weeks to make sure that the trend will reverse. The rally that CITI had was a bear rally, then it went down again. I am waiting for the earnings annoucement on April 19th, and I am probably going to get long in CITI.



    Now the question is: How low can it go before it reverses?



    I believe another 20-30%...
  2. E. (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Smith Barney has been my brokerage house for 25 years. Citi Group took it over about 5 years ago.

    Please comment on whether I should remove some of my holdings through Smith BarneyCiti Group to another company for diversification since Citi Group seems to be overextended. I do have concerns...more than 1 l/2 million equity stocks and bonds are involved. I use both a money manager and a regular advisor, each in different offices in different states. from the SmithBarneyCitiGroup offices.



    . While I am in my 70's...I am a go getter, just getting ready to finance a new business with other funds. and holdings.



    Please comment and discuss what strategy I should take. Thank you.



    Enjoy the Tycoon Report very much....



    Palm Springs, California....



    ..
  3. vj (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    I hope you are correct. But at the moment there are to many negative news about citi. I dont know what they are going to do about dividend for next upcoming date. only time can tell us.
  4. jester112358 (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    It seems very difficult to value CITI shares since its future income stream is very doubtful. They have a lot of financial derivatives such as SIVS and CDS which may have no market. These are currently held off-book, but will have to be recognized in future quarters.



    I view all the money center banks as poor investments when one can own companies with much more favorable supply/demand situations and thus lower risk which produce oil, metals, and other commodities which are finite supply. Unfortunately, money, which banks supply via loans isn't in short supply due to the continuing rate cuts and devaluation of the dollar.
  5. KJ (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    For newbie out there. Be very skeptical of the folks here in The Tycoon Report. There're positives and negatives but I want to point out the negatives here.



    Think about their motive - they want to sell newsletters and products. I don't know if it's for the money or ego or whatever, but it's apparent that they want to sell you stuff.



    This guy Jason routinely claim his performance by assuming you sell at the top. If the stock price ever go higher than his recommended price it becomes his winner.



    He doesn't like to talk about risk and downside. He cares more about his track record than you so he averages down again and again to lower his paper basis and ask you to throw more of your hard earned money into it. Don't do it. He can do it because he can average down again and again without putting in money but you can't. In this particular article alone it shows that he doesn't care about you and your hard earned money.



    I'm not saying he's a bad person but when you have other motive on top of trying to help people you end up hurting people.
  6. Brenda (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    I am surprised at this recommendation. I will say that I followed your advice on CVS using long term calls and doubled my money. And a really big thanks for that one! However I did not buy C when you first recommended it as, even as a novice trader, I felt that the situation with most financial stocks was very poor. I felt that the subprime mess was not close to being over and there was and is a very good chance that we were not being told the truth. It would not surprise me to hear of further write downs. I know a lot of readers understand balance sheets and how to look up different ways to see if C is in good standing. I always enjoy and learn from these members comments and research. One thing I have learned is to see the bigger picture and listen to my 'gut'. Which told me to stay away. I love the Tycoon Report and especially Jason's articles, though I am disappointed with this call. A lot of us are learning and do not have big accounts to trade with. While C may turn out to be a long term winner, I feel that now is not the time to buy and tie up money that could be used elsewhere in a much safer trade. With CVS, you could see the fundamentals and the technical picture was good. I don't see any of this with C. There have been many articles about 'don't try and catch a falling knife'. C looks like a falling chain saw! And no one knows what further bad news is coming. I sure hope (that four letter trading word 'hope')you are right on this one Jason because normally I would trade anything you recommend. That is a lot of pressure on you for sure! But I think I will paper trade this one. And I think that is what everyone has to remember...do what is right for you..
  7. Morris (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    sooner or later you will be right on "C"..seems to me that you should wait until it starts to go up to buy it. the 30% decline, from the first purchase, needs to appreciate 40% to get even. How is that so smart. do you have a lot of 40% gainers??? when they are wrong "Smart" investors cut their losses and save their capital. dollar cost avg. is for, well I don't know who, in a bear mkt. when you are as wrong as you have been wouldn't it be better to sit back and wait for a upturn instead of guessing about buy entrees??? having all the answers does not make a person a good investor. Making money is the measurement. Mo
  8. Alexander H (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    I have posted this time and again, whenever I am reading these "Buy more Citigroup" articles:



    Why the rush to buy this thing? NO, absolutely NO, technical indicator is showing any improvement and the fundamental situation looks quite questionable as well.



    It is relatively easy for a newsletter author to continuously recommend averaging down until the final price is actually met and things might go up again. But who tells you everybody can duplicate that? It is not like your readers are the FED and can pump money such as they would like...



    I really respect your advice, Jason. In the past, you have done a tremendous job.



    However, I still believe that what you are doing here is in direct opposition to your great past work and should not be done at all the way you are doing it.



    I know it is Teeka's quote, but where has the "Let the game come to you" attitude gone?



    In my opinion, this deserves criticism. Not because your advice is contrarian (I like that!), but because you are - in my humble opinion - unneccesarily rushing this and thereby increasing risk and reducing potential profits of this trade for no apparent reasons (at least I cannot see it). This confuses me and does not look very professional to me.
  9. Helmut (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    You want proof? Take a look at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/



    You will see that, on 13 February 2008, the reserves of depository institutions stood at $42,093 million, of which minus $18,008 was non-borrowed, i.e. depository institutions borrowed $60.1 billion from the Federal Reserve to cover $42 billion of statutory reserves.



    In November 2007, reserves were $42,646 million, of which $42,281 million was non-borrowed. That should be the normal state.



    Between November 2007 and 13 February 2008 the depository institutions went from plus $42.6 billion to minus $60.1 billion. Where has that $102.7 billion gone?
  10. Helmut (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    What is C's equity to assets ratio? Is it the average of all banks, approximately 10%? Then consider that the assets comprise loans, shares and property, all of which have lost more than 10% in value. In other words, C has wiped out its equity and part of its depositors funds. Its "book value" is negative!

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