The Tycoon Report

My 2006 Report Card ...

Monday, December 25, 2006 | Jason Jovine

Dear Tycoon Readers,

First of all, I want to say that I hope that you all enjoy reading my articles as much as I like writing them for you.  As we all know, 2006 is just about over, and I wanted to take this time to report on my performance for 2006 so that you can determine if it is worth reading me and hearing what I have to say in 2007.

If I offended any of you in 2006, then I sincerely apologize; this was not my intention.  My intention is to give you honest and practical advice, but unfortunately, when you do this, some people’s feelings can get hurt.

Overall, I would give myself a grade of an A-.  Let me tell you why.  Every single stock that I have recommended has appreciated in price (gone up) with the exception of CVS (which is about flat) which is my most recent recommendation (give it some time.)

I predicted the huge run up (bull market) this year as well as what the Federal Reserve would do or not do during its policy meetings.  My top five recommendations for 2006 were:

1. NTY which went about 85% after I recommended it.
2. ANSW which went up about 80% after I recommended it.
3. GM which went up about 70% after I recommended it.
4. FXI which went up about 50% after I recommended it.
5. XOMA which went up about 50% after I recommended it.

I have included links to the top five recommendations below if you are curious to see why and when I recommended these stocks.  I want you all to have a very happy and healthy holiday season, and I will do my best to provide you with no-nonsense advice in 2007, as well.

Until the next time folks, spend your hard-earned money wisely,

The Bountiful Profit from Nature    
Good day everybody!  I am in a great mood today.  I went jet skiing with my brother yesterday for about an hour down here in Florida, and boy, was it an experience!  All the salt water flying in your face aside, isn't the ocean absolutely wonderful?  Let me continue on the path that I started on approximately two weeks ago when I introduced some facts on the drug business.  To briefly summarize the key points, I had mentioned that 75% of all diseases are not curable … and obviously, by default .. Read More

More Bang for Your Buck: THE ANSWER ...    
I.  General Commentary:  I have my own feelings about the way our country is run.  I think that you have to be in a coma, at this point, if you don’t believe that our dependence on foreign oil has helped put us into the situation that we are in today.  The future Mideast turmoil will continue to get worse over the long term as long as we keep buying its number one export – oil.  This oil habit that we have is obviously not good for peace or the environment.  We are doomed as long as our ...  Read More

FAT YIELD: Shusssssh ... Do you want to know a secret?    
I would like to tell all of you wonderful people that I give an oath to you right here and right now.  I solemnly swear that I will do my very best to provide you with the very best bond recommendations possible.  I WILL NOT be right 100% of the time, but I will do my best to come as close to that as possible.  What I aim to accomplish is to give you fixed income ideas to add to your portfolio that have the highest yield possible with the least amount of risk.  But risk and reward go hand and hand ... Read More

Fat Yield: JACQUES COUSTEAU COULD NEVER GET THIS LOW!   
Man, oh man, do I see money lying on the table!  All right, guys and gals, no more games; we have to get serious.  I gave you two recommendations so far in a couple of other previous commentaries.   The first was a bond, and the second was a stock (my physiologist always told me that I was eclectic,) and now I will mix it up again. The question that I ask myself every time I blabber to you is, “Where can we put our money and get a more than adequate return for the amount of risk that ... Read More

More Bang for Your Buck: No Market Pain, No Market Gain.    
First, my take on what's been going on in the markets this week:  This market looks absolutely great to me.  Don't get scared, ladies and gentlemen.  I hope you know by now that greed and fear move the market, and that's exactly what is happening now.  I'm not going to talk about the same old stuff as everybody else.  I'm not going to talk about interest rates … oil prices … inflation, or other stuff like that. Of course all of this stuff matters; but come on. If you pick a good comp ... Read More




Jason Jovine
Contributing Editor
The Tycoon Report


Mark Your Economic Calendar: What's ahead for the week of December 25, 2006
MARK YOUR ECONOMIC CALENDAR – What’s ahead for the week of December 25th.

Wednesday, December 27th, 2006
10:00                New Home Sales: Consensus 1025K
Big Picture: New home sales have fallen a sharp -27% from the July 2005 peak.  Speculative investment has run scared as median prices have rebounded to a positive 12 month gain in October from -9% yoy in September.  Prices will continue to fade given high inventory (homes for sale) despite the lower levels of fixed term mortgage rates.   The 30-year mortgage rate has fallen off the mid June 6.8% high as lower rates and lower prices will help moderate the sales decline.  Strong speculative buying in some locations leave a stronger risk of larger price declines (in those specific locations) as the trend in national and regional prices will be modest given the size of the increase over the last few years.

Thursday, December 28th, 2006
8:30                 Initial Claims: Consensus NA
Big Picture: Initial claims broke above the remarkably tight range held in the 4-week average for 5 months but have returned after the holiday spike. Continued claims showed a five year low in the 4-week average in mid May but now stands 94K higher.  The continued low levels reflect the thin available labor supply which make a qualified hire difficult to find and therefore leaving less layoffs.  A good read on the labor market as net hiring slows with the economy.

10:00                 Consumer Confidence: Consensus 101.5
Big Picture: The index reached new 4 year highs in January, March and April 2006.   Energy prices, interest rates and the slowed economy have left a -6% decline since April.  The index has been extremely volatile over the last year.  Mini 'cyclettes' (and large monthly volatility) are evident in the slowing upward trend.   Conference Board's survey is far larger and more business heavy than the household-heavy Michigan sentiment index.  The index is presumed to provide an early read on consumer spending which is far better previewed through interest rates and income growth.

10:00                 Existing Home Sales: Consensus 6.15M
Big Picture: Higher mortgage rates and reduced demand have severely softened the housing market after the record high of June resales.  30-yr mortgage rates reached a 6.8% high in June and have fallen off considerably since, but as the huge amount of unsold inventory needs to be worked down before prices end their deceleration and now yoy declines.  The downward trend hasn't been overly severe given the years of record growth preceeding it as now falling long term mortgage rates, lower prices and improving employment and income growth provide support.  Strong price gains has fallen to yoy declines for the first time since mid 1995. 

Friday, December 29th, 2006
10:00                 Chicago PMI: Consensus 59.5
Big Picture: The index rose to an annual high in September then rebounded to an sub 50 level in November.  A volatile regional measure reflecting a slowing in demand for business capital investment.  Briefing.com expects manufacturing demand and production to soften in the 4th quarter given the decline in business confidence which will presumably carry in to investment orders.   Inventories have been drawn down to satisfy near term demand as rebuilding shouldn't be expected to provide much of a lift.  The manufacturing sector moves in sharper cycles than the overall economy and the regional measures move in even shorter, more volatile patterns.  Business investment has strong fundamentals of flush corporate balance sheets and high capacity use as confidence in the economy continues to risk weaker order growth.
(Source: www.Briefing.com)