The Tycoon Report

Our own support group for all you tickerhounds.

Unbridled optimism in U.S. stocks seemed to follow us into the New Year. Why underlying fundamentals should have you thinking twice.

 HI, MY NAME IS DYLAN AND I'M AN INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR.

ALL OF YOU TOGETHER: HI DYLAN!

 ME: Thanks for inviting me to share my story. I know how limited email boxes can be so I appreciate the time.

ONE OF YOU: Thanks for sharing.

 ME: Uh, yea...thanks again for having me. Anyway, this is a little odd for me. I've never shared my story at a support group before... But Marc invited me to speak to ya'll today... I guess he thought by telling you my story, I may be able to help you see past the blind bullishness in the marketplace today.

ONE OF YOU: Keep coming back!

 ME: Uh, well, thanks... Let's see, where do I start? For those of you who don't know, I'm the Chief Investment Officer of Fallen Angel Stocks.

ALL OF YOU: APPLAUSE

 ME: Please, please...you're gonna make me blush...

ALL OF YOU: LAUGHTER

 ME: Ok, Ok enough.

ALL OF YOU: UNCOMFORTABLE SILENCE.

 ME: I'm sorry...um, where was I? Oh Yes! Fallen Angel Stocks... Well, Fallen Angel Stocks is a montly investment newsletter that gives members objective advice on where they should invest their money.

ONE OF YOU: What's the website?

 ME: Oh, Yes...It's..um...www.tycoonresearch.com But I know we're all limited on time, so let me get on with it... I started my investing career at a very early age. I don't know...I was probably running away from something or whatever, but for some reason I just took to it.

At first it wasn't too bad. Sure I read the Wall Street Journal and watched CNBC, but I was in control. I only traded when I thought I could make money. But, as I'm sure many of you could relate to, my addiction progressed... Before I knew it I was using Bloomberg and pulling all-nighters watching market news... I couldn't have been more than 19 at the time....(PAUSE)

ONE OF YOU: IT'S OK, TAKE YOUR TIME.

 ME: Thanks...thanks very much... But then it got worse. Much worse. Pretty soon I actually became part of the herd. Whenever Wall Street became bullish I became bullish. Whenever Wall Street turned bearish I automatically turned bearish. Right before I hit Rock Bottom I even found myself repeating what the television pundits were saying any time I went to a party.

ALL OF YOU: GASP!

 ME: Yea, it was bad. I almost lost everything. My ability to think for myself, my identity....everything... So I guess that's why I'm really here today. You've all been watching the news recently, right?

ALL OF YOU: YEA!

 ME: Then you know what I mean when I say the last two months have seen an amazing disconnect between the performance of the stock market and underlying fundamentals.

ALL OF YOU: HERE, HERE.

 ME: It seems that everywhere I look, everybody is ignoring some pretty dismal fundamentals. Gosh, one report I read even predicted a 15 percent rise in the S & P this year! And that was from a "reputable" brokerage firm!

ALL OF YOU: GASP!

 ME: So, I guess I'm here today to remind you that sometimes the hardest thing to do is ignore what "smart" money is saying and stick to your investment philosophy. Especially if your investment philosophy, like mine, was forged by years of experience and knowledge. That's right.

So, as we enter 2005, let me share with you what I'm sharing with subscribers to Fallen Angel Stocks: Regardless of what you hear, 2005 is at an economic tipping point. That's because the U.S. is facing a rapidly falling dollar, outrageously high deficits, and rising inflation. That means the stock market is at a tipping point. But the chances of the market going lower are greater than the chances of the market going higher.

Therefore, "CAREFUL" is the Watchword as we enter the new year. What that means to us at Fallen Angel Stocks is that we'll often be reminding our subscribers of our 2 golden rules of investing:

Rule #1: Don't lose money

Rule #2: Don't forget rule #1.

ALL OF YOU: APPLAUSE.

 ME: Thank you, thank you. Yea, you in the back. Do you have a question sir?

DUDE IN THE BACK: WHERE CAN WE FIND OUT WHAT STOCKS YOU'RE BUYING?

 ME: That's easy. Go to www.tycoonresearch.com. Feel free to sign up for a free 30-day trial....it's on me.

ALL OF YOU: RESOUNDING APPLAUSE.

 ME: Remember, you are what you read.