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Can you still profit from the Microsoft / Yahoo deal?

Thursday, February 7, 2008 | Jason Jovine

Rating:
Before I touch on what relates to your pocketbook, I want to say that a Tycoon reader of ours is going through a very challenging time. His name is George S. He is 79 years old and will be 80 in April. He is having heart surgery this month and is very concerned about the surgery.
 
If I heard you correctly George, I believe that your doctor told you that there was a one in seventeen chance of survival. George is a retired military man who is staying strong through this difficult time. On behalf of all of us here at Tycoon, we want to wish you the best of luck. We will be praying for you. God Bless!!

Economic Breakdown…


MONETARY POLICY:

On January 22, 2008, the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut the federal funds rate (interest rates) by 75 basis points; from 4.25% to 3.5%. This move was unprecedented. On January 30, 2008, they cut by another 50 basis points bringing the target federal funds rate down to 3%.

More specifically the key points of the Fed's statement at their January 30th meeting were that:

1) The housing and job markets are still weakening

2) The Fed will continue to cut interest rates as needed.

3) Inflation is still an issue but no longer the primary concern for the moment.

4) The credit crunch is still in effect.


Based on the actions, more than the words, of the fed, they are very concerned about the economy.

The fed’s job is to keep the economy growing at the right pace and to stop inflation from getting out of control. When Bernanke first took over, he was more concerned with inflation and less concerned about the economy; now it’s the other way around.

Obviously, the negligence of regulators with respect to the mortgage industry coupled with the greed of lenders are the leading reasons that we are in this mess.

FISCAL POLICY:


On the fiscal policy front, Congress is grappling with the economic stimulus package. The key questions are:

1)    How much should be given out to people?

 –and-

2)    To whom should it be given?

As usual, members of congress are trying to slip in spending that has more to do with their own greed then with stimulating the economy.

In the short term, if they want to stimulate the economy then they should send checks to lower income people. Lower income people are more likely to spend their checks quickly relative to higher income people.

It’s kind of like giving a steak to a starving homeless person versus giving it to someone who is already full. This isn’t rocket science.

Some may argue that there should be tax cuts given to business.  I would generally agree, but the Bush administration has already bent over backwards for business. In other words, tax policies are already super friendly to business relative to the “Average Joe”.

It is already a “Capitalism Gone Wild” atmosphere out there. What’s next? Will we have to give our blood to business? They already are getting their cake and eating it too. ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!!!!

NOTABLE EVENTS THIS WEEK:

The race to become leader of the free world:

I am not going to talk about Clinton, Obama, or McCain today. It is too premature at this point to say which one of them will be president and how their polices will impact your pocketbook.

As the months continue to pass, and we become clearer as to whom the next president will be, I will certainly discuss that person’s polices as they relate to the economy and your wallet. I will do this in a non-partisan way using standard business principles.

(As a side note, after I wrote this article that you are currently reading, I used spell check and guess what happened. Where I wrote "Obama" above, spell check asked me if I meant to say “Osama”. Is that scary or what?)

Microsoft & Yahoo!:

Yahoo's stock shot up over 60% when Microsoft announced they wanted to buy them. Take a look:



Microsoft, of course, wants to buy Yahoo because they are getting their butts kicked by Google. I think that overall this is good news. It is good news not only because competition in business ends up being good for consumers, but because it will force other players in this field, such as AOL, to take some action. Stay tuned.

About 60% of searches go through Google. About 14% go through Yahoo, and only about 3% go through Microsoft. Moreover, Google has about 590 million unique visitors per month, compared to Microsoft’s 540 million and Yahoo’s 485 million.

Microsoft does almost $60 billion a year in revenue, which is much more than Google’s 17 billion or Yahoo’s 7 billion. The bottom line is that Microsoft has the cash, Yahoo has the name and the visitors, and the two together will definitely create a strong competitor against Google.

If things go poorly between these two lovebirds, Yahoo's stock could fall right back down, so be careful! If you are thinking about playing this deal at all, consider doing a straddle (it's an options strategy). A straddle involves buying a call and a put, or selling a call and a put, with the same underlying security, the same exercise price, and the same expiration date. If the investor buys both options, it is a long straddle. If the investor writes (sells) both options, it is a short straddle.

The purpose of buying or writing a straddle is to speculate on the volatility of the underlying security. The buyer of a straddle expects the price of the underlying stock to be volatile. The seller of a straddle expects price stability (no volatility).

In the case of Yahoo, we expect the price to be volatile.  If you choose to play the deal, you, of course, would be buying a straddle. Make sure that whatever you do, that the options on the straddle are long term and preferably in the money.

The Service Sector

The market was down almost 400 points on Tuesday because of the disappointing news coming out of the service sector. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) came out with their Non-Manufacturing Business survey from January, and the number came in at 44.6. Anything below 50 indicates that there is a contraction.

The prior month (December) had a number of 53.2. That is a huge drop!!

This renewed fears of a recession and increases the odds that the fed will cut rates again!  Remember, consumers account for about 2/3rds of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Out of their spending, about 60% of it goes for services rather than goods.

This is the reason why this statistic had such an effect on the market. This is why economics are so important and so underrated among traders. If you understand economics, and the impact economic data could have on your portfolio, it could save you an enormous amount of cash!!!

Until the next time folks, spend your hard earned money wisely and please send in words of encouragement to George S.

(Please let us know what you think about Jason Jovine's article.)
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Jason Jovine
Contributing Editor
The Tycoon Report




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33 Comments

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  1. Len (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Excellent article.
  2. sreck1 (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Can anyone help explain the difference between Chris Rowe's Trend Rider service and Teeka Tiwari's Point and Profit service? Both seem to be very good, but I am trying to determine if one has a trading style that would be closer to my own. Also, can anyone comment on performance history of the model portfolio for both? Thanks.



    Steve
  3. ARMIN (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Chris, Dylan and Teeka,



    I was looking for a way to communicate with you guys and lo and behold - I found this.



    I just wanted to say that I love to read your articles and your's is the most-flagged email in my inbox. Not only are you guys knowledgeable about your subject, but also are sincere in extending (or should I say over extending) advice to mortals such as I who are new to investing/trading at the ripe old age of 50. I can't help but admire the prolific writing styles each of you has. I can truly appreciate this as I myself am gifted to a degree when it comes to the written word. Unfortunately, I have never found a gathering of such intellect and aplomb such as yours, in which to participate.



    Keep the emails coming my friends and my most sincere gratitude to all that you do for the common Joe out there.



    Armin F. Dastur

    Atlanta, Georgia



    PS: My sincere prayers for George S. for a successful surgery and a speedy recovery, Amen.
  4. Sharon (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Hello All,



    George, please remember that you are not alone, all of us here at Tycoon wish you the best. I understand your concern, my husband underwent implantation of a heart defibrillator/pacemaker 18 months ago. The uncertainty was very stressful. Trust God, your doctors and yourself.



    Jason: I believe in helping the poor, but wouldn't be better to teach a person to fish than give that person a fish?



    Jennifer: Agree with giving those of us who pay taxes the break we deserve.



    John Mahler: You are right. We need to go back to Gold being the Standard.



    Microsoft and Yahoo? A good deal for both. Will wait till things shake out a bit, but will definitely put them both on my watch list.



    Best to All,

    Sharon Myers-Ring
  5. John (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    I do a lot of internet searching for several purposes. I rarely use Yahoo, but when I match up Google to MSN, the results from Google are always superior to the results from MSN. Until I see some changes with that, I am keeping my money in Google.
  6. mike (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Excellent comments. You make sense.
  7. Bob D (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    As in your article, I see this general statement in many articles:

    ==============

    In the short term, if they want to stimulate the economy then they should send checks to lower income people. Lower income people are more likely to spend their checks quickly relative to higher income people.

    =============

    I really don't get that. Regardless of who gets

    a check and even if that money is placed in a savings account or some other equivalent way,I can't see how it wouldn't get spent pretty fast.



    The only situation I can imagine where it wouldn't be spent is if one kept the money under their mattress; And that could happen if we wind up in

    a negative interest rate position that Japan

    found itself in for a time.



    I would like to understand the logic behind that

    statement.
  8. Helmut (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Our best wishes are with George. Look at it this way - a trade that has only 1 in 17 chances of going sour is a good trade to take.



    Jason, you forgot to mention in your comments on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy that the depository institutions have borrowed $mil52,545 from the Fed in less than two months (see my question "What does it mean?").
  9. Linda (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Thank you for your mention of George S. I do not know him, however, I want to say that we are praying for him too for good results on his upcoming surgery. We believe the power of prayer is strong and it has been proven many times.
  10. John M (1 year ago) Is this Spam?

    Greetings George S.

    I wish you the best with your heart surgery. However, don't focus on survival in the 3D body; you're short selling yourself. I am a many time NDE (near death survivor). If you die in this world, you live on in a much better place in the next. I have been there many times but always had to come back here. Here sucks! You are in a place now where we all are as we watch our money go to hell in a hand basket when a trade goes against us. I have no fear of death. I do have fear of sour trades. I wish I could go to my eternal home every day. To discover what I am seeking to tell you, please go to: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fo8u4ApUxVE&feature=related

    Then watch all the Pam Reynolds videos; there are four. Trust me, you can't lose no matter which way it goes. You probably have to copy / paste the URL above into your address bar. There is no click-able feature on this forum. I am 61 years of age and suffer sleep apnea which led to heart damage and the NDEs. I have been lucky enough to avoid heart surgery so far.



    As for you Mr. Jason Jovine,

    You really need to forget everything you ever learned in college / street about the economy. It is all false. What I am going to share with you below is not some fringe lunatic UFO believer wind bag opinion. This comes from a credible mainstream Swiss banker. No matter what your opinion of Kenesian-o-phobes might be, read it all because it is precisely why the economy will most likely slide into recession, depression, and complete failure much worse than the 1929 depression. I was hoping against hope this was not going to happen. If the DOW had held at $12500, we would have had a rebound. Now, all bets for a bull and recovery are off the table. In 1929,the "rich" had something government could steal. Now, we are all rich and have nothing but fiat currency based on debt. Even government thieves won't take it. If the wage earners go belly up, so do the tribute slaves. That's what really has you by the short arm; isn't it? UNTIL GOLD IS AGAIN THE STANDARD FOR CURRENCY, EVERYONE IS A SLAVE OWNED BY CENTRAL BANKS; NOT A SOVEREIGN CITIZEN. THE ECONOMY WILL NOT BE HEALED UNTIL GOLD RETURNS TO BACK CURRENCY AND CURRENCY WILL AGAIN BE SOUND.



    John Mahler



    CHECK IT OUT:



    Swiss Banker Tells How Gold-Backed Currency Hinders Wars



    December 18, 2002 10:09 p.m. PST







    Hello Dear Friends and White Knights,







    The White Knights are well aware that by using gold, silver, and platinum



    to back our new U.S. Treasury currency, this will help to reduce wars.



    Below is an article written by a Swiss Banker who explains why precious



    metals backed currency hinders those who want to wage wars. This speech



    was given during a conference in Austria which ran from August 30 to



    September 1, 2002..







    My sources tell me the fact that NESARA is due to be announced was known to some of the people at this conference. Why else would a Swiss Banker

    suddenly give a speech about gold-backed currency hindering waging wars?

    (Ed: NESARA=URL: http://nesara.org/main/index.htm)



    WHY would a respected Swiss Banker discuss THIS topic when there is NO



    other activity to get currencies backed by gold, except the true NESARA



    law. ONLY the true NESARA law is causing countries to go back to



    “gold-backed” currencies. Clearly, this speech by a Swiss Banker is in



    SUPPORT of the true NESARA law.







    If you still don’t “get it”, let me explain it this way. When a speaker is



    asked to address a conference, the speaker is expected to discuss a



    RELEVANT topic. The speaker would only be discussing gold-backed



    currencies as a deterrent to war BECAUSE there ARE current activities which



    are moving certain countries to actually having gold-backed currencies in



    the NEAR future!







    There are ZERO other activities anywhere which are calling for various



    countries to return to gold-backed currency. ONLY the true NESARA law is



    doing this. This speech is another one of the PROOFS that the world’s



    experts in banking and monetary systems DO KNOW about the true NESARA law.



    NESARA Yes!







    Blessings and Love,



    Dove of Oneness







    ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~



    http://www.fame.org/HTM/Why%20Gold-Backed%20Currencies%20Help%20Prevent%20Wars.h



    tml







    (Lecture by Ferdinand Lips delivered at Humanitarianism at the Crossroads



    Congress in Feldkirch (Austria), August 30 - September 1, 2002 and



    translated from German).







    WHY GOLD-BACKED CURRENCIES HELP PREVENT WARS



    [By] Ferdinand Lips, of Lion Capital Group in Zürich, [Switzerland]







    The context



    I will start my talk with an allegation. You have gathered here for a



    specific reason. You have come because the gold standard was given up in



    1914 at the beginning of World War I.







    Looking at the program, I see that all of the topics with which we are



    going to deal are in some way related to that event. World history proves



    that there is a close relationship between monetary systems and war and



    peace. It is also evident that there is a close relationship between



    monetary systems and ethics and morals.







    Unfortunately, it is not widely known that the 19th century was a period of



    prosperity and economic growth without inflation. It strikes us like a



    fairytale when we discover that in those days the most important currencies



    were stable over a long period. The French franc, for example, remained



    solid for one hundred years. It was the era of the gold standard.







    The Life Span of Currencies



    French Franc 1814 - 1914 ……..100 years



    Dutch Guilder 1816 - 1914 ……..98 years



    Pound Sterling 1821 - 1914 …….93 years



    Swiss Franc 1850 - 1936 ………...86 years



    Belgian Franc 1832 - 1914 ……...82 years



    Swedish Krona 1873 - 1931 …….58 years



    German Mark 1875 - 1914 ……...39 years



    Italian Lira 1883 - 1914 ………...…31 years



    (Pick's Currency Yearbook 1977 - 1979).







    How the gold standard worked



    The basic rule of the gold standard was a fixed amount of gold for each



    money, i.e., each money was defined as a specific weight of gold. Paper



    currencies were redeemable into gold at any time. A nation's monetary



    reserves consisted of only gold. On an international level, importing and



    exporting gold was unrestricted. All balance of payments deficits were



    settled in gold. (Balance of payments: the sum of all transactions between



    the homeland and other countries).







    In this way, gold had a disciplining influence on a national economy. It



    limited public spending. It provided citizens with money that maintained,



    and even slightly increased, its purchasing power over time and was



    internationally recognized. If a balance of payments deficit developed,



    gold automatically transferred out of the country. As a consequence, prices



    began to decrease. Exports became competitive again and the balance of



    payments reversed. If a country had a balance of payments surplus, then



    gold entered the country and the economy was able to expand. Upward



    revaluations or devaluations were unthinkable. The system maintained its



    stability automatically. This is one reason why politicians do not like



    gold. Gold forces them to balance their budget.







    The 19th century gold standard, the highest monetary achievement of the



    civilized world



    The gold standard was neither conceived at a monetary conference, nor was



    it the brainchild of some genius. It was the result of centuries of



    experience. Great Britain was the architect. At the height of the gold



    standard at the beginning of the 20th century there were about fifty



    nations, all of them leading industrial nations, which participated in the



    gold standard. It was one big clearance community, and it worked.







    In his book Währungen am Scheideweg (Managed Money at the Crossroads -- The



    European Experience), Prof. Dr. M. Palyi wrote in 1960:



    "For the first time since Rome's prime did the civilized world succeed in



    creating a monetary unit. The commercial and financial integration of the



    world was achieved without the help of a military empire or a dreamy



    utopia. In theory and in reality, this monetary unit was accepted and



    recognized as the only rational currency system. Due to the automatic



    mechanism and the discipline to which the monetary institutions were tied,



    fluctuations in the exchange rates were very limited if not altogether



    impossible. This was the incalculable advantage of a gold currency. Trade



    and industry were able to plan ahead. Especially the automatic mechanism



    and the 'rules of decent behavior' in monetary affairs observed at the



    time, liberated the value of money from the impact of the governments'



    whims. They substantially stabilized it on a worldwide basis. Despite all



    assurances by the monetary reformers, no reasonably equivalent replacement



    has been found in the meantime."







    Economist Ludwig von Mises wrote in his book Human Action:



    "The gold standard was the world standard of the age of capitalism,



    increasing welfare, liberty, and democracy …. In the eyes of the free



    traders its main eminence was precisely the fact that it was an



    international standard as required by international trade and the



    transactions of the international money and capital market. It was the



    medium of exchange by means of which Western industrialism and Western



    capital had borne Western civilization into the remotest parts of the



    earth's surface …. and creating riches unheard of before. It accompanied



    the triumphal unprecedented progress of Western liberalism ready to unite



    all nations into a community of free nations peacefully cooperating with



    one another …. The gold standard is certainly not a perfect or ideal



    standard. There is no such thing as perfection in human things. But nobody



    is in a position to tell us how something more satisfactory could be put in



    place of the gold standard."







    The era of the gold standard during the 19th century was the golden age of



    the white man. During this period, after Napoleon, there were only seven



    wars of any importance.



    Post-Napoleonic Wars During the 19th Century



    1855 Crimean War



    1861 - 1865 American Civil War, abolition of slavery, Abraham Lincoln



    1866 Prussian-Austrian War, Königsgrätz, North-German Union



    1870 - 1871 German-French War



    1877 - 1878 Russian-Turkish War, Congress of Berlin



    1894 - 1895 War between Japan and China



    1895 - 1898 Spanish-American War



    1900 2nd Anglo-Boer War in South Africa



    And furthermore: There was no terrorism of the scope we know today.







    Contention



    My claim is that, had the gold standard been maintained, the warring



    nations would have had to observe the rules of the gold standard, and,



    therefore, World War I would have been over in a few months. Because of the



    automated mechanism and the prevalent "rules of decent behavior," financing



    the war on credit in a Keynesian style would not have been possible.



    Parenthetically, except for Karl Marx, Swiss historian Jacob Burckhardt



    describes Keynes as one of the great destructive forces in world history.











    Soon after the onset of World War I, the moment came when the world turned



    to monetary fraud. Political pressure to finance the war with money created



    out of nothing made a sane monetary structure futile and led to the ruin of



    currencies -- and a war lasting four years. The world lay in ruins and a



    young, hopeful generation was lost somewhere on the battlefields.







    The collapse of the international monetary system provokes the demise of



    the old world order.



    The result of World War I signified the fall of the Old World. Reading



    Stefan Zweig's book Die Welt von Gestern (The World of Yesterday), you will



    be able to see what the world looked like then, and how cruel it is today.



    As we are in Austria today, we should remember what the Austro-Hungarian



    Empire represented and denoted how orderly the situation in Western,



    Central and Eastern Europe was in those days. One of the most senseless



    things to happen in world history was the breakup of the Austro-Hungarian



    Empire and everything that was connected to it.







    Of course, there is no such thing as a perfect world, but cross the



    Hungarian border from the Burgenland and enter the next bigger city,



    Körmend, and then you will know what I am talking about. A few years of



    communist rule has laid the land in ruins. Financing the war is what mainly



    ruined Germany, then the most thriving country. The Reichsbank financed a



    large part of its war effort on a short-term basis, i.e., not with



    long-term War Loans like the British. This fact, in addition to the



    Versailles Treaty and unreasonable reparation payments, led to



    hyperinflation, destruction of the middle class and, finally, Hitler. It



    set the stage for World War II.







    The monetary tragedy of the 20th century



    The return to the gold standard after World War I was a fait accompli. But



    it lacked wisdom and power on the part of those in charge. In 1922, at the



    Conference of Genoa, the gold exchange standard was introduced. Please note



    that it was not the gold standard that was reestablished, it was the gold



    exchange standard that was launched. This meant that, apart from gold,



    national banks could also use dollars and pounds, i.e., the currencies of



    the triumphant nations, as reserves. Suddenly, dollars and pounds were



    equivalent to gold. That was inflationary, because dollars and pounds were



    now accounted for twice: first, in the country where they were issued; and,



    second, in the country that held them in reserve.







    Furthermore, it should have been known that paper-ticket currencies were in



    no way immune to loss of purchasing power. Therefore, they could not be



    permanent and generally valid yardsticks. Gold always keeps its value -



    paper currencies do not. Today, it is generally accepted that increased



    credit formation was the reason for the uncontrolled speculation in the



    real estate and stock markets during the 1920s. Their collapse paved the



    way for the crisis of the 1930s. The same thing can be said for the present



    stock market crisis. It is also due to immense credit formation over the



    past twenty years and lack of monetary discipline provided by the gold



    standard.







    Central banks, banks and the war



    When the gold standard was abandoned, central banks were the last barrier



    to rampant money creation as long as they were able to maintain their



    independence. However, in the meantime we have learned from bitter



    experience just how ineffective these so-called keepers of stability were.



    An excellent example for this is the US Federal Reserve in 1913. This



    fateful institution was founded even before the war. Since, the dollar has



    plummeted to about five percent of its former value. Central bank



    independence was not what it was cut out to be. Central banks became



    compliant pawns of governments and their constituent banks. In today's



    non-system, it is precisely central banks that, in conjunction with banks,



    make financing of wars of adventure possible by means of unlimited credit



    formation. There are no brakes anymore.







    In his book Jenseits von Angebot und Nachfrage (The Social Crisis of Our



    Time) economist Wilhelm Röpke said: "One can venture the claim that



    governments very rarely had complete control over their currency without



    abusing it." In today's age of the welfare state, the probability of such



    an abuse is greater than ever before.







    The tragic decisions of Bretton Woods in 1944



    The world had not learned anything at all. At the close of World War II, it



    was decided to introduce the gold/dollar standard. A direct result was



    inflation in the 1970s. Again, notice the subtlety. After World War I, we



    went from the gold standard to the gold exchange standard with dollars and



    pounds. After World War II, we proceeded to the gold/dollar standard. The



    pound had lost its previous stature in the interim, and, next to gold, the



    dollar remained the only valid reserve currency and, then, only because the



    dollar was convertible by foreign central banks into gold on demand. It was



    a sign of the increasing economic power of the US.







    The structure created in Bretton Woods gave Americans the appalling



    monopoly to settle their debt with paper-ticket-token money they had



    printed. Nobody could have resisted such temptation. When this structure



    collapsed on August 15, 1971, we moved to a system of floating exchange



    rates. That fully opened the floodgates for creation of money, credit,



    deficit spending and speculation.







    Today's international order is a consequence



    In a speech on August 7, 2002, President George W. Bush said the following:



    "There is no telling how many wars it will take to secure freedom in the



    homeland." With this comment Mr. Bush announced that there might not only



    be a war against Iraq, but many wars around the globe. He did not define



    when a war would be considered won or lost. This means that these wars may



    continue indefinitely. The consequences of these wars are very clear. Trade



    and investment activities will suffer great damage in such an environment



    of insecurity.







    I will now take a closer look at the question of how the US will be able to



    pay for these wars. In principle, the US is bankrupt. It has been like that



    since August 15, 1971. That was the day America escalated its war against



    gold. Not unlike a banana republic, the US defaulted on its sovereign



    obligation to redeem dollars for gold as agreed upon in the Bretton Woods



    system. Theoretically, the US cannot be warring at all, i.e., under the



    strict discipline of the gold standard it would not be possible.







    Because of the nation's deficit, there would not be any money left to spend



    on an unproductive and destructive war. The US's foreign debt is enormous.



    Until the early 1980s, the US was a creditor nation. Now it is a debtor



    nation, including a catastrophic balance of trade, which is running up an



    annual deficit of $450 billion. And still the US is conducting wars, which



    it is paying for with paper-ticket-token money, which basically is the



    equivalent of counterfeit. The Americans are creating this funny money



    themselves - and everybody has accepted it since 1971. Ever since then, and



    for the first time in history, the world has been living on a system of



    irredeemable paper-ticket-token money. So we may note that if the world



    were on a gold standard, the US could not be conducting any wars. Why?



    Because then they would have to pay for them in gold. Gold, therefore, acts



    as a braking mechanism. Putting on the brakes has a disciplining effect.







    Who, then, actually pays for these wars? The answer is simple. We all do,



    out of our savings and our promises of future payment, e.g., our pensions!



    It was no different for Kennedy's and Johnson's Vietnam War. We were all



    footing the bill by eventual world inflation leading to rapid devaluation



    of our currencies.







    The 20th century



    Contrary to the 19th century, the 20th century was a century of inflation,



    hyperinflation, trade and currency wars, waves of speculation, military



    conflicts, two world wars, hundreds if not thousands of local wars,



    hundreds of millions dead, annihilation of entire nations, mass migrations,



    economic ruin, and, finally, the decline of civilization.



    Why are there wars? Without a doubt, economic reasons weigh in as the most



    ponderous in any string of motivations for international conflict that



    ultimately lead to war. They range from primeval struggles for hunting



    territories, pastures, salt mines and fertile valleys, to predatory attacks



    and conquests of the seafaring and trading nations, all the way to modern



    battles for living space, sales territories and, the most important



    motivation of all, access to natural resources. Internal political problems



    also play a major part. Often wars are started to divert attention from



    problems on the home front. In the Middle East, both aspects are involved:



    the control over oil resources and the distraction from the disastrous



    condition of the US financial system. Saddam Hussein is only a pretext.







    These wars continue to contribute to the destruction of currencies'



    purchasing power. While a gold coin from the times of Alexander the Great



    or Julius Caesar still shines as it did then, it is the fate of the



    purchasing power of paper-ticket-token currencies to revert to their cost



    of production, and that is nil. The Germans can tell the US a thing or two



    about that. A total loss after World War I, another total loss after World



    War II, and finally admission to the European currency system, the Euro.



    All that happened within less than one hundred years.







    Gold-as-money is a precondition for freedom



    Not only is there a correlation between gold currencies and war, but also



    between gold currencies and freedom. US Federal Reserve Board of Governors



    Chairman Alan Greenspan wrote a well-known essay "Gold and Economic



    Freedom" in 1966 attesting to this. He recently confirmed that he believes



    this essay is applicable today.







    Once we remember that one of the first official acts transacted by Lenin,



    Mussolini and Hitler (and, by the way, also by Franklin D. Roosevelt) was



    to forbid possession of gold, we recognize the context. Even today the



    price of gold is manipulated and kept artificially low. Wall Street bankers



    and their helpers have been at it for quite some time. In the US a lawsuit



    was filed. I cannot say more about this at the moment, but it should serve



    as an impulse to reflect on the present situation. These manipulations are



    described in my recently published book "The Gold Wars: The Battle Against



    Sound Money As Seen From A Swiss Perspective"







    All we have today is paper-ticket-token money. It is equivalent to



    counterfeit money. It does not offer a citizen any security. He cannot save



    enough money. If he does save, most of it is lost. The situation is worst



    for recipients of wages and pensioners. In the end he is forced into the



    arms of the (welfare) government, and he effectively loses his freedom.



    Politicians will mostly resist the reinstallation of gold-as-money. Röpke



    was right when he wrote in his book Internationale Ordnung - heute



    (International Order and Economic Integration):







    Conclusion



    Today, when "Humanity is at a Crossroad," as the topic of the conference



    characterizes the worldwide political situation, we want to address



    academic faculties. We want to know what they can contribute to finding a



    way out of this and to prevent an unimaginable escalation of suffering. As



    a banker, I implore you to put the gold standard back on the agenda. The



    people understand it intuitively. The gold standard would be my guild's aid



    to bridle the power frenzy of the mighty.







    Paper-ticket-token or funny money is like a drug addiction. It takes more



    and more of the drug to satisfy the addiction. Collapse is the final



    result. There is no indication today that this experiment with the



    equivalent of counterfeit money will end any better than earlier, similar



    experiments. Due to the US's economic power, paper-ticket-token money has



    already lasted longer than one might expect.







    Allow me to conclude with a quotation from a speech given in Washington



    D.C. in 1948 by Congressman Howard Buffett from Nebraska, father of the



    most successful investor of all times, Warren Buffett. The address was



    entitled "Human Freedom Rests on Gold Redeemable Money":-



    "Our finances will never be brought into order until Congress is compelled



    to do so. Making our money redeemable in gold will create this compulsion



    …. The paper money disease has been a pleasant habit thus far and will not



    be dropped voluntarily any more than a dope user will without a struggle



    give up narcotics. But in each case the end of the road is not a desirable



    prospect …. I can find no evidence to support a hope that our fiat paper



    money venture will fare better ultimately than such experiments in other



    lands. Because of our economic strength the paper money disease here may



    take many years to run its course …. But we can be approaching the critical



    stage. When that day arrives our political leaders will probably find that



    foreign war and ruthless regimentation is the cunning alternative to



    domestic strife. That was the way out for the paper-money economy of



    Hitler and others …. I warn you that politicians of both parties will



    oppose the restoration of gold …. Also those elements here and abroad who



    are getting rich from the continued American inflation will oppose a return



    to sound money …. But, unless you are willing to surrender your children



    and your country to galloping inflation, war and slavery, then this cause



    demands your support. For if human liberty is to survive in America, we



    must win the battle to restore honest money…. There is no more important



    challenge facing the US than this issue - the restoration of your freedom



    to secure gold in exchange for the fruits of your labors."







    "Ladies and Gentlemen, these are the subtle relationships between freedom,



    money, intellect, war, peace and gold."



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