Insider Buys and Sells: Weekly Wrap-Up
Monday, August 4, 2008 | Tycoon StaffRating:
For all the analysts and pundits in the financial media, there is still no better judge of a company's health and future prospects than the owners and executives of those companies themselves, along with major institutional shareholders.
That's why insider buying and selling is a critical piece of data that is monitored by people who invest for a living.
As part of our continuing effort here at The Tycoon Report to level the playing field between individual investors and the fat cats on Wall Street, we're keeping you informed -- on a daily basis and at no cost whatsoever -- of the most significant insider buying and selling.
Below is a weekly re-cap of the past week's activity. We publish this re-cap every Monday, and it can be accessed in your email issues or on the Tycoon Report website.
Very important note: While these Monday re-caps are available on the Tycoon Report website, if you want the most timely information we provide on insider buying and selling you've got to be sure and read the email issues that we send each weekday morning.
BUYS
Goodrich Petroleum Corp. (GDP)
Director Josiah Austin has BOUGHT more than $4.6 million worth of GDP stock.
View Details
Suntrust Banks Inc. (STI)
Director Alston Correll has BOUGHT more than $2.9 million worth of STI stock.
View Details
Contango Oil & Gas Co. (MCF)
CEO Kenneth Peak has BOUGHT nearly $2 million in MCF stock.
View Details
Allegheny Technologies Inc. (ATI)
Chairman and CEO Patrick Hassey has BOUGHT more than $2.3 million worth of ATI stock.
View Details
Cybex International Inc. (CYBI)
CEO John Aglialoro, along with two other corporate directors, each BOUGHT $1.26 million in CYBI.
View Details
Continental Resources Inc. (CLR)
CEO Harold Hamm has BOUGHT more than $2.8 million worth of CLR stock.
View Details
XL Capital LTD. (XL)
CEO Michael McGavick has BOUGHT just over $2 million in XL stock.
View Details
SELLS
Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)
Executive Vice President and CSO Norbert Bischofberger has SOLD nearly $9.4 million in GILD stock.
View Details
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM)
Senior VP Bruce Harreld has SOLD just under $7 million in IBM stock.
View Details
Waters Corp. (WAT)
Executive VP Arthur Caputo has SOLD more than $4.4 million in WAT stock.
View Details
Vocus, Inc. (VOCS)
Director Kevin Burns has SOLD nearly $6 million in VOCS stock.
View Details
CEC Entertainment Inc. (CEC)
CEO Richard Frank has SOLD more than $4.5 million in CEC stock.
View Details
Reliv International Inc. (RELV)
The Paul and Jane Meyer Foundation has SOLD nearly $3.6 million worth of RELV.
View Details
General Dynamics Corp. (GD)
EVP Gerard Demuro has SOLD over $1.8 million in GD stock.
View Details
Aflac Inc. (AFL)
CFO and President Kriss Cloninger III has SOLD nearly $2.9 million worth of AFL stock.
View Details Mark Your Economic Calendar: What's ahead for the week of August 4, 2008
Economic Calendar for the Week of August 04 - August 08
Monday, August 4
8:30AM - Personal Income and Consumption
Release Details
* Importance (A-F): This release merits a C .
* Source: The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce.
* Release Time: 8:30 ET around the first business day of the month (data for two months prior).
* Raw Data Available At: http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/rels.htm -- see personal income release.
Personal income measures income from all sources. The largest component of total income is wages and salaries, a figure which can be estimated using payrolls and earnings data from the employment report. Beyond that, there are many other categories of income, including rental income, government subsidy payments, interest income, and dividend income. Personal income is a decent indicator of future consumer demand, but it is not perfect. Recessions usually occur when consumers stop spending, which then drives down income growth. Looking solely at income growth, one may therefore miss the turning point when consumers stop spending.
The income report also includes a section covering personal consumption expenditures, also known as PCE. PCE is comprised of three categories: durables, nondurables, and services. The retail sales report will provide a good read on durable and nondurable consumption, while service purchases tend to grow at a fairly steady pace, making this a relatively predictable report, and ranking it well below retail sales in terms of market importance.
Highlights
* Personal income jumped 1.9% in May due to the fiscal stimulus checks. A similar increase is likely for June.
* Real personal spending may decline slightly in June due to a big increase in the deflator, but the underlying trend in real PCE is good. Spending will continue to increase in the third quarter due to the impact of the fiscal stimulus. Only a small portion of the stimulus has been spent so far, and a lagged impact similar to what happened in 2001 is likely.
* Steady income gains of 0.3% to 0.4% per month (excluding the fiscal stimulus) are likely to continue despite monthly payroll declines averaging 0.04% (just a 0.5% annual rate) per month. Higher wages offset that small percentage decline in the number of employed. The steady income gains are not widely recognized, but provide the foundation for the steady trend in real PCE.
Big Picture
* Consumer spending is holding up well. Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose at a 1.1% annual rate in the first quarter. The 0.2% increase in May was followed by a 0.4% increase in June. A dip may be posted for July, but overall second quarter real PCE will still be up at close to a 2% annual rate. Lower home prices and higher gas prices have simply not been enough to prevent consumer spending from continuing upward at a modest pace. The fiscal stimulus is also now helping, and will boost real PCE even more in the third quarter. There was a lagged impact in 2001 from that stimulus, and a similar pattern is likely in 2008. Personal income continues to rise at a an underlying rate (excluding the fiscal stimulus) of about 0.4% per month., despite modest monthly declines of about 0.04% per month in payrolls so far in 2008. These income gains, due in part to higher pay, are providing the foundation for modest spending gains.
Tuesday, August 5
10:00AM - Non-Manufacturing ISM: Institute for Supply Management
formerly: Non-Manufacturing NAPM (National Association of Purchasing Managers)
Release Details
* Importance (A-F): This release merits an improved B-.
* Source: Institute for Supply Management
* Release Time: 10:00 ET on the third business day of the month for the prior month.
* Raw Data Available At: http://www.napm.org.
In Brief
The non-manufacturing ISM report is a national survey of purchasing managers which covers new orders, employment, inventories, supplier delivery times, prices, backlog orders, export orders, and import orders. Diffusion indexes are produced for each of these categories, with a reading over 50% indicating expansion relative to the prior month, and a sub-50% reading indicating contraction.
The index should be far more indicative of the broader economy given its inclusion of service-producing as well as good-producing sectors outside of manufacturing. However, the short history of the index dates to only July 1997 and doesn't provide the insight of a longer period inclusive of varied economic climates. The seasonal adjustment of the index didn't begin until January 2001 with only 3 of the 9 components seasonally adjusted as of April 2001. The lack of historical data and lack of a tight correlation to the non-manufacturing economy leaves the relatively poor "B-" rating compared to the "A-" rating of the well-respected manufacturing ISM index.
Big Picture
* The ISM services index is not a major economic indicator. It is a survey that provides some general indications of trends in the services sector, but not much more. The index dipped surprisingly in January, but improved each month since then until a dip in June.
Thursday, August 7
8:30AM - Initial Claims
Release Details
* Importance (A-F): This release merits a C .
* Source: The Employment and Training Administration of the Department of Labor.
* Release Time: 8:30 ET each Thursday (data for week ended prior Saturday).
* Raw Data Available At: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/main.htm.
Initial jobless claims measure the number of filings for state jobless benefits. This report provides a timely, but often misleading, indicator of the direction of the economy, with increases (decreases) in claims potential signalling slowing (accelerating) job growth. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile, and many analysts therefore track a four week moving average to get a better sense of the underlying trend. It typically takes a sustained move of at least 30K in claims to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
There are two other statistics in this report -- the number of people receiving state benefits and the insured unemployment rate; neither is watched closely by the market. Some analysts track the number of people receiving state benefits from month to month as a guide for job growth, though this series has a poor track record in predicting the monthly employment report. The insured unemployment rate changes little on a weekly basis and is never a factor for the market.
Highlights
* The jump in new claims for the week ended July 29 can not be discounted out of hand. There is a general upward drift in claims. However, there are some special factors that may have pushed the level higher this week. First, states redoubled efforts to raise awareness of extended federal benefits. This in turn reportedly also led to an increase in applications for state benefits. Second, the not seasonally adjusted level of claims for the week ended July 29 actually fell by 37,000. A larger seasonal decrease normally occurs due to the auto industry cycle. This year, however, the cycle was abnormal. That may have kept claims down a bit in recent weeks, but would have raised the reported level this week.
* The 448,000 level is clearly bad news, but probably not as bad as the first glance suggests.
Big Picture
* Unemployment claims are running at elevated levels, but well below levels experienced in the past two recessions. The four-week moving average has been near 375,000 since early March. This steady trend contrasts with the sharp increase in claims that occurred ahead of the 2001 recession, when claims spiked to over 400,000 per week by mid-April after the start of recession in January. The current trend in claims is consistent with moderate declines in payrolls, but not at the rate of 150,000 per month or more seen in true recessions.
