It's Finally Here ...
Monday, July 2, 2007 | Wayne MulliganRating:
Ok, I’m going to keep today’s article short and sweet ...Reason being, today isn’t about me. Today isn’t about Tycoon.
Today is about YOU!
And what I mean by that is that, even though we’ve completely revamped the Tycoon website, we didn’t do it for “us,” so to speak.
We did it for YOU!
We wanted to give you a better experience with The Tycoon Report.
We wanted to give you a place to come to interact, teach and learn from other investors.
We wanted to create a site where investors, like you, can help educate and empower other investors.
So here it is, the new and improved Tycoon Report site: http://www.TheTycoonReport.com
What to Look For
One of the first things you’ll notice here is a more compact homepage. We’ve tried to bring as many of the Tycoon Report articles and stories to the top of the page as possible. That’s what you came here for after all.
The next thing you’ll notice is that the links on the right side of the page have changed. Now you can start submitting your own articles to The Tycoon Report.
And don’t forget, we’ll be publishing the highest ranked Member Article in the Tycoon Report e-mail newsletter each and every week. So put your best foot forward, your story could be next!
You’ll also want to check out our new Voting and Commenting features on the article pages as well. Now, when you’re done reading one of our articles, you can tell us what you think right on the Tycoon Report web page.
Comment and vote as often as you want – every time you send in a new comment or a new vote, The Tycoon Report editors will be notified. That’s why you’ll begin seeing writers like Chris, Teeka, Dylan, Jason and myself replying to your comments right on the web site!
Remember when I went on my rant two weeks ago? About how investing needs to be a two-way process – where advisor and advisee are sharing information? Well that’s EXACTLY what we’ve tried to do here.
And in case you’ve forgotten, you can read it again at the link below:
http://tycoonreport.tycoonresearch.com/articles/945653495/a-new-mission-at-tycoon
Where Credit is Due
And in closing I just want to take a moment to thank everyone here at Tycoon that made this new site possible.
As a reader of The Tycoon Report, you only get to see a small fraction of our company. There are so many people behind the scenes who make “all the trains run on time.” So I’d like to give a HUGE “thank you” to the following Tycoons who don’t get nearly enough recognition:
George Zhao – Our web guru who has spent (literally) countless days, nights and cups of coffee working on this site. Hats off to George for being the hardest working programmer in New York!
Richard Interlandi – Our fearless technology leader who makes sure all of our great ideas have the right technology behind them, and works his butt off to keep all of our projects on track!
Khang & Moose – These guys are not only responsible for building some of the new features you’re going to enjoy, but are also responsible for helping us build the tools that make our lives easier on our end – we couldn’t do what we do every day without these two!
You – That’s right, I’d like to thank you as well. If it weren’t for you, your loyal readership, and candid feedback, we wouldn’t be where we are today.
So hats off to you as well – I really hope you enjoy what we’ve put together on the site, and you can expect a number of additional updates and exciting new features throughout the summer.
Have a great week!
(Please let us know what you think about Wayne Mulligan's article.)
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Wayne Mulligan
Contributing Editor
The Tycoon Report
Mark Your Economic Calendar: What's ahead for the week of July 2, 2007
Monday, July 2
10:00 - ISM Index (for June): Consensus 55.0
Big Picture: The Institute for Supply Management's monthly Report on Business is probably the most widely watched economic indicator produced by the private sector. There are two key reasons for the ISM's prominence. First, its longevity -- the report was first produced in 1931, and after a break during World War II, it has produced continuously since 1948. Second , its leading quality -- the ISM has been one of the better predictors of the business cycle over the years.
Implications: The ISM report is a national survey of purchasing managers which covers such indicators as new orders, production, employment, inventories, delivery times, prices, export orders, and import orders. Diffusion indexes are produced for each of these categories, with a reading over 50% indicating expansion relative to the prior month, and a sub-50% reading indicating contraction. The total index is calculated based on a weighted average of the following five sub-indexes, with weights in parentheses: new orders (30%), production (25%), employment (20%), deliveries (15%), and inventories (10%).
Tuesday, July 3
10:00 - Factory Orders (for May): Consensus -1.0%
Big Picture/ Implications: Factory orders consist of the earlier announced durable goods report plus non-durable goods orders. The report is very predictable with nondurables the only new component. Nondurables consist of such items as food and tobacco products which grow at a fairly consistent monthly rate, so that market forecasts for this report are far more accurate than for the durable orders report. In addition to seeing nondurables for the first time, the market also watches for revisions to the durable orders data, which can be significant. At present, durable goods orders sum to about 54% of total orders. The final piece of new information in this report is factory inventories -- the first glimpse at the inventory picture each month (wholesales inventories are typically released a week later, with retail inventories released a few days after wholesale inventories). Though the inventory figure is not a market-mover, economists use this number to help forecast inventories in the quarterly GDP report.
17:00 - Auto Sales (for June): Consensus NA, Truck Sales (for June): Consensus NA
Big Picture: Auto and Truck Sales measure the monthly sales of all domestically produced vehicles. They are considered an important indicator of consumer demand, accounting for roughly 25% of total retail sales. Demand for big ticket items such as autos and trucks tends to be interest rate sensitive, making the motor vehicle sector a leading indicator of business cycles. Each auto maker reports sales individually. The reports are typically released over the course of the first three business days of the month. Using the individual reports, a total annual sales pace can be calculated after applying Commerce Department seasonal factors. It is this annual sales pace that the market refers to when discussing auto and truck sales for the month.
Implications: Vehicle sales figures rarely grab the attention of the market, probably for two reasons. First, though the specifics of the data are not terribly difficult to understand, their implications are a little hard to trace. Second, unlike many economic releases, vehicle sales are not released all at once and at the same time every month. This makes it difficult for the market to quickly interpret what the numbers mean for the overall consumption picture and to react accordingly.
Thursday, July 5
8:30 - Initial Claims (for 6/30): Consensus 315K
Big Picture:
* 4-week average edged higher to a tame 316K from lower levels the prior six weeks.
* Shows increased hesitancy to lay off workers given the lean available supply and expectations for stronger growth ahead.
* 4-week average in continued claims held at 2.50 mln from a four month low in late May.
* A very tight labor market as the labor force supply (employed and unemployed) has contracted since year end.
Implications: Initial jobless claims measure the number of filings for state jobless benefits. This report provides a timely, but often misleading, indicator of the direction of the economy, with increases (decreases) in claims potential signaling slowing (accelerating) job growth. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile, and many analysts therefore track a four week moving average to get a better sense of the underlying trend. It typically takes a sustained move of at least 30K in claims to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
10:00 - ISM Services (for June): Consensus 58.0
Big Picture: The non-manufacturing ISM report is a national survey of purchasing managers which covers new orders, employment, inventories, supplier delivery times, prices, backlog orders, export orders, and import orders. Diffusion indexes are produced for each of these categories, with a reading over 50% indicating expansion relative to the prior month, and a sub-50% reading indicating contraction.
Implications: The index should be far more indicative of the broader economy given its inclusion of service-producing as well as good-producing sectors outside of manufacturing. However, the short history of the index dates to only July 1997 and doesn't provide the insight of a longer period inclusive of varied economic climates. The seasonal adjustment of the index didn't begin until January 2001 with only 3 of the 9 components seasonally adjusted as of April 2001. The lack of historical data and lack of a tight correlation to the non-manufacturing economy leaves the relatively poor "B-" rating compared to the "A-" rating of the well-respected manufacturing ISM index.
Friday, July 6
8:30 - (All for June) Nonfarm Payrolls: Consensus 120K, Unemployment Rate: Consensus 4.5%, Hourly Earnings: Consensus 0.3%, Average Workweek: Consensus 33.9
Big Picture: The employment report is actually two separate reports which are the results of two separate surveys. The household survey is a survey of roughly 60,000 households. This survey produces the unemployment rate. The establishment survey is a survey of 375,000 businesses. This survey produces the nonfarm payrolls, average workweek, and average hourly earnings figures, to name a few. Both surveys cover the payroll period which includes the 12th of each month.
Implications: Given the wealth of data contained in the employment report, it is important to take all of these indicators into account when passing judgment on the report. Looking at payrolls along is often misleading, as the workweek, earnings, and household employment measures may be telling a different story. Taken together, however, and taken with the caveats concerning monthly volatility and revisions, the employment report offers the best monthly glimpse of the economy.
Source: www.Briefing.com
