The Tycoon Report

John McCain: The 44th President!

Editor's Note:  It's Thursday, and as promised, we've chosen one reader article for publication dealing with the upcoming election.  Congratulations to John, who has been published in The Tycoon Report previously, and who we always enjoy hearing from.  For next week, your challenge is to answer this question: As investors, why should we care who becomes the next President?  To submit your article on the issue, just click here.

Super Tuesday for me was the end of the 2009 election. It was very interesting and telling to watch Barrack Obama out duel former Democratic presidential-nominee-shoe-in Hillary Clinton. This feat would have been unthinkable two years ago, and a political miracle only 8 months ago. It was also very interesting to watch formerly past-his-prime moderate Republican John McCain become the Republican nominee.

Taking the political atmosphere into consideration, it is Crystal clear to me, John McCain will be the next President of the United States.

By atmosphere I mean the political climate and voter perception of the parties at this point in time. A funny thing has happened over the last 6 months in the political atmosphere; the constant negative drumbeat about the war in Iraq has all but stopped. Reporting of daily violence in Iraq, the doom and gloom rhetoric, attacks against the President, have all subsided.

Obviously this is not what the Democrats would have envisioned for the run up to the election. It seems like only yesterday we could see Harry Reid on TV telling the American people the war in Iraq was all but lost. Democrat after Democrat stated how the war was un-winnable, they continued their doom and gloom rhetoric even after they lost the last Presidential election.

During the last election, the atmosphere could not have been worse for the Republican party. There was no way the Republicans could survive, the Democrats were sure to oust Bush from office. Yet, for some reason, Bush won again. The Democrats did win significant seats in the House and Senate, but not the big one ... how was it possible?

Maybe, just maybe, the Democrats misjudged American determination to win a war, even an unpopular war. Maybe the cut and run strategy seems too much like quitting in the middle of a fight. The one thing the Dem’s seem to forget.

No matter how rich or advanced American society has become, we are still a brave, proud society, willing to fight the ugliest wars, in the ugliest places. We are not a perfect nation, but voters believe overall we fight for everything that is good in world.

Leading to a major problem with the Democratic party: they are seen as the “Anti-American party.” Why do you think the President of Iran is rooting for Obama to win the Election? That is his perception as well. This is the perception being seen by swing voters (the most important voters in the election).

A view heightened by the recent controversy surrounding Pastor Wright and Obama. The left tried to make it a racial issue, pretty much saying how this is common in the black “church”. If that is true, it is very sad that a certain sector of the Christian church is filled with such divisiveness, anti-Americanism, and open racism.

Voters are sure to ask, “If Obama is part of this community, how can he run his campaign around togetherness?” And they are right, it is a question about character, because I know in myself, I would not even sit through one anti-American sermon. I would walk out!

If the Democratic party believes that Barrack Obama is electable in a general election, they are severely mistaken. Aside from the above-mentioned issue of character, he is seen as almost laughable on foreign affairs ... cut and run only appeals to the far left ideologues at moveon.org and our foreign enemies.

Half the party knows he is unelectable, so they refuse to make Clinton leave the race. If the party united behind Obama the obvious winner, Clinton would be forced to move out of the way. But the party knows nationally Clinton is the better candidate.

They are mistaken!

Hillary Rodham Clinton. Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Is it me or has Bill Clinton’s presence in her campaign given it a sleazy feel? We'll let that one slide for now.

Hillary was going to be the first woman president on the United States. I have to admit; I thought she would win. Now, she probably will not even be the Democratic-Presidential-Nominee. She was ran over by a Jr. Senator no less.

Going into this election, Hillary was Mike Tyson to Barrack Who! But Obama changed into Buster Douglas and is putting the beating on the Clinton(s).

How could a Jr. Senator compete with the most famous woman in America?

Simple: the Democratic voters are rejecting her, and her politics, for a new face with fresh ideas. Obama obviously has something about him, the "it" factor. A refreshing face with a refreshing message.

Or is it that Clinton has lost the democratic party? It is fair to argue the Obama’s rise is more about Hillary’s fall. Prominent Democratic supporters having been jumping her ship rapidly. If Hillary does happen to win the Democratic nomination, she will never be able to win in a general election, when she barely has the backing of her own party. This latest “sniper fire” snafu was the final nail in the Senator's electoral coffin. Clinton's days are over, and for the Republican party this is a surprising victory.

This seems to be The Democrat's biggest problem, their lack of electable candidates. Clinton, Reed, Edwards, Kerry, Dean, Gore, who would elect these people?

Now Hillary and Obama are constantly fighting about everything from race to policy. Its been ugly and yet so pretty for the Republicans. Furthermore the Democratic party has been hurt by other problems; Mayor of Detroit arrested, Governor Spitzer sex scandal, and the Florida and Michigan debacle. It seems the Democratic party has lost its way.

For years the Democrats have focused on what the President was doing wrong and never really created a clear focus for their party. Now the national focus is off the war, and the Democrats are confused under the lights.

The Republicans on the other hand are pretty much united behind a moderate Republican. I myself would have preferred Giuliani, but how can you say anything bad about John McCain? Sure, McCain doesn’t sit well with some conservatives but he is the clear Republican nominee and not much mud slinging is going on in the party.

John McCain, who no one believed could win the Republican nomination over Giuliani, did just that! The thing about McCain separating him from all other candidates in this race: he has the moderate appeal, the ability to cross party lines, and sway swing voters.

He is seen as too soft on immigration and other issues by the right, giving him some left-leaning support. The candidate able to sway swing and moderate voters, is the candidate able to win a presidential election. Neither of the Democratic candidates offer this type of option.

Second, McCain is a genuine war hero, actually tortured with facial scares to prove it. Even so, he is not the cowboy, guns blazing type of guy. He does have the real life experience to understand and deal with the harsh realities facing the world today, but not the Bush cowboy impression.

McCain also erodes a portion of the Democratic stronghold over the Hispanic vote. He is seen as a friend of the immigrant and the Republicans are seen as the party for Christians. While the Democrats have a more secular agenda influencing Hispanic Christian values. Hispanics are of deep Christian faith and could sway some Hispanic votes to a pro-immigrant Republican Presidential candidate like McCain.

McCain will be wise to pick the right VP candidate who appeals to his cross-party voters and swing voters, while improving on his conservative base. There are many candidates out there, you pick.

The Democrats on the other hand will be stumped to find the right VP. An Obama/Clinton ticket is a sure fire loser. Neither could be elected nationally alone, so how could they together? The first African American and woman on the same card is not going to win a general election.

Who else? Edwards, Dean, both ultra-liberal guys that would doom any presidency try. They could beg Lieberman, not sure how that might work out, but best-a-luck.

Then you have their policies. The thought of higher taxes in an economic slowdown is not appealing to the people, and neither is socialized medicine. Maybe, just maybe, a reason why Congress's approval rating is in the low 20’s, ten points below the President.

This election's atmosphere is more favorable for the Republican party and John McCain specifically than the last election. Based on everything I just said, I predict John McCain will be easily elected as the next President.